2013: How Money should be placed ?

Best and Worst Investment in 2012 by Bloomberg

2012 only has a few hours left, let's take a look of how investment world fares and how I, personally, would like ahead for 2013. (As for usual caution: This article only presents my personal view. For investment, readers get to assess their own risk type and make their own prudential decisions)

投資概念(1): 現金流量，股利與折現

穩懋(3105)縮短設備折舊年限 明年EPS少5毛 嚇跑砷化鎵買盤！ 鉅亨網 (Dec. 22, 2012)

折舊費用, 有這麼可怕？少五毛，投資人就要大幅度賣出懲罰*？ 問題到底出在哪裡？ 

A) 學會計的好狡猾在操縱盈餘
B) 我們應該來拆解一下看一下現金流量.....
C) 李組長眉頭一皺發現這案情並不單純................

對於入門證券市場的朋友，我經常會把下面的這個公式拿出來用。它很簡單，很基本，但也很多把戲！

(聲明：筆者沒有持有這家公司，在這篇文章完成日前後90日不打算做任何的操作。以下推論內容也不做為推薦買進或賣出的參考)

隨意雜感: 商品化有什麼不對?

最近跟了一些台灣的新聞, 有一個觀點我不太能夠理解. 或者是說,對於所謂"左派"的思考我有所謂不能理解的地方.

我們反對將"_____"商品化: "________"可以自行帶入各式各樣的物品.

商品化有什麼不對?

A glimpse of thought: Risk seeking and boom-bust circle

In my leisure time, I read two article about the boom and bust of economic circles: one article is about how Ching Dynasty is doomed by a rubber price mania in early 20th century, the other is about the housing price in Europe now, at least in some regions, are coming back.

This gives me a thought: How to study people's risk-seeking behaviors!

The price of (holding) cash

What is the true value of cash you hold in hands? There are actually two very interesting views

1. Cash as a option, priceless!

What Warren would say is this:
"Cash is an call option, with no expiration date and no strike price."

2. "Money is (a form of) debt"

The academia might have another perspective to offer. In this interview with Harald Uhlig, John Cochrane, and Gideon Magnus at Morningstar, they consider money as debt.

Unraveling the Mysteries of Money (just in case the video won't show up directly, you could use the combined with the title)

以豬哥亮先生來解釋歐債跟財政風暴

今天晚上突然靈光一閃想到：要對於想要了解歐債風暴或者是財政危機始末，卻沒有經濟或者財務背景的市井小民，要如何解釋這樣的問題？歐債四國, 這些被稱為PIGS(Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain)的四隻小豬，跟紅遍台灣半邊天的豬哥亮，恰恰好有異曲同工之妙!!

資本主義為你服務(4): 如何了解勞動市場?

這篇文章最早開始於2012年的10月，當時最低薪資在台灣媒體還跟釣魚台議題都很占版面,然而，釣魚台議題討論得沸沸揚揚，最低薪資卻草草的在倉促決定下落幕。這樣討論的熱度跟台灣人斤斤計較, 審慎處理自己荷包的文化下似乎不成比例，而剛好美國最近聯邦最低薪資是否要調高再次成為話題，我也就把這篇文章重新整理一遍。

Capitalism works for you(3)?: We could also have "public service" market

Newark’s Booker Lures Wall Street Millions to City Few Have Seen Bloomberg(Oct 3, 2012)
This is a case that Capitalism/Market economy indeed helps people to improve their conditions.

When people talk of Capitalism and criticize about it, they usually cite how "unjust" of these phenomenons: millions bonus, luxurious mansion,  super cars and excessive spending on meals and clothing.  However, that is only "the surface" of how a group of people exhibit their fortune. These, frnakly speaking, has little to do with Capitalism. Along the course of history, any of the "have-it-all" class would do the same.

Yet, capitalism is about competition, about marketplace, and about how marketplace could be an efficient mechanism to allocate resources. This news also tell us that, capitalism can also be applied in political occassions and do "good" to the public.

Capitalism works for you? (2): what's a market about?

 *Simply put, what the heck is Capitalism????

Capitalism works for you?(1) 資本主義為你服務/適合你?

很有意思的公眾意見調查,"資本主義是否適合你?" 

原文的句子可以解釋成"資本主義適合你"; 或是"資本主義為你服務.",一語雙關,令人玩味

跨業投資: 溫泉旅館與化工廠? 到底我們買了甚麼?

這是一個很有意思的問題, 到底在選擇股票標的時, 是要選擇專注本業的公司, 或者是業外投資多元可以分散現金流量風險的公司?

這個問題的想法來自兩個資訊來源: 飛利浦法說會, 以及國喬和台苯的比較

Too old to get employed, too young to retired?

This article aims to share two articles, having a very different views on aging.

2012.Mar. 22: Too Old to get hired, too young to retired: by Michael Kinsley

2012 Sep. 7: BMW never-too-old assembly insures against lost engineers by Christian Wuestner

In crisis time, labor markets are always under the spot light. Of course, lots of talks are on financial system. Yet, to my belief, human, as we see in labor markets, is the only core of economy.

A brief look of London (2)

Bloomberg Report: Occupy London

I recall my conversation with a Englishman in the bar called "The Old Bell Tavern" Before going into the details, I would really recommend this Bar for friends going to London. A interesting part is that they have a  tradition to ring the bell before the bar is going to close.( I think they ring it twice: 30 mins ahead and 1 hour ahead)

European Debt Crisis: Spanish Theater 歐債危機西班牙劇場

I have two reasons to write this article: The first is that, regarding to my love to Catalunya, I feel I shall write something to clarify how situation is over there. The second is that I am so fed up with the questions constantly asked by my Taiwanese friends about European debt crisis. Their arguments are built up by local news, which  only delivered partial facts leading to wrong conclusion.

So, I decide to write this one. Same as other articles: This article is written both in English and Mandarin.

中國黃皮書(China Beige Book)：對經濟活動的草根性觀察

圖片來源: http://chinabeigebook.com/index.php

我們怎麼估計一個國家的經濟狀況？

最基本的，我們會看一個國家的經濟成長率。不過這年頭大家越來越聰明，多半了解經濟成長率中間有太多可以玩的把戲，因此會開始追尋一西其他的資料。比如：零售業銷貨成長，採購經理人指數，甚至，用水用電量。

中國因為幅員廣大，每個區域的經濟動能不盡相同。而統整起來的整體數據跟現實狀況很容易出現問題。因此，有一群人，就仿效了美國的做法，做出了這個有趣的玩意兒：China Beige Book




How to gauge the economic condition of a country?
Such questions remain challenging for lots of Economists, especially in case of China. Various reports has suggested that GDP growth number ALONE cannot be indicative for the overall economic condition. Some economists suggest to look at electricity consumption, considering China as "world factory". Others suggest to look at retail sales and service sector, considering China "in-transit" as a more domestic-consumption-oriented economy.

Now, Beige Book has its Chinese version.

近期Beige Book資料：
China Beige Book News Coverage
FED Beige Book, current release 

中國企業繼續往外購買.....well, 足球隊?

這是個2012年年中，兩則中國企業的併購消息:

中信證併購里昂信貸
今年先吃下19.9%的股權, 計畫於明年(2013)年中把剩餘的股權買下. 目前看來似乎是中信證write一個put option給CLSA, 然後CLSA可以把剩下的股權直接轉移.

中國鐵路建設買下Inter Milan 15%股權
交易金額: 500m 歐元
交易目的:國米需要錢, 主要是要蓋一座屬於自己的新球場. 而未來一年只能打Europa League的狀況下必須要找尋新的金主.

China, stabilizing?

Bloomberg's Interview with Andrew Sheng

"You have to understand China is a very big economy...still growing....(and so on so forth)"
Well, honestly, tell us something we did not know.

Korea Real Estate market slides

Korea Home price slide with property anxiety By Seonjin Cha and Cynthia Kim, Bloomberg

摘要:
韓國正結束他們十年以來的房價成長, 從1998-2008 二月, 首爾地區的房地產有66%的價格成長. 從2008-2012以來, 韓國政府採取許多措施來限制貸款, 這樣的措施顯然對房地產市場出現了許多衝擊, 2012年五月開始, 韓國政府開始對經濟收入最繁榮的三個地區房地產的貸款限制解禁.雖然房租不斷上升, 房價逐漸下降,但韓國人還是找不到購屋的理由.

China: Conflicts between urban and rural area?

CPC consolidates ruling through strengthening Party members' role in rural areas

陸幹部拚下鄉 幫農村收入翻倍
CPC dispatches their party officials to rural areas to help the regional economic growth.

幹部下鄉運動需要多面突圍
Party officials are asked to strengthen the rural area developments.

Bankia's problem is worse than we thought

From profit to loss, Bankia restated their financial result 
May 26, 2012 El País by Miguel Jiménes

韓國的信用合作社問題

自殺, 逮捕! 韓國的"儲蓄銀行"風暴

基本上這個問題從2010年九月開始爆發, 這個新聞引起我的注意是因為跟西班牙的狀況相當類似. 只不過問題透過相當不一樣的模式解決.

儲蓄銀行是1997-1998年金融危機之後, 韓國人想要透過整合地方金融, 成立"Saving Banks"的方式, 來重建地方金融的信心, 讓地方金融仍就可以順利進行. 不過沒想到就這樣埋了一顆不定時炸彈在這.

全國性的銀行有18家, 而這些地方性的區域銀行有100家左右.這些銀行其實無法跟大型全國性銀行競爭, 因此, 他們必須透過追尋高風險的貸款來創造獲利, 這在2006年時韓國房地產狀況好的時候可以這樣, 但隨著資產價格的修正, 這些銀行也慢慢出現了問題. 

問題出現的當下, 這些銀行試圖"解決": 他們透過發行次順位債券的方式, 讓一般民眾可以"認購"他們的債券. 藉此試圖充實資本, 然而, 承諾的利息卻在無法支付的狀況下, 出現了倒閉潮跟擠兌. 問題從2010年底開始爆發, 陸陸續續倒閉了20家銀行, 今年(2012)年五月還關閉了另外一家上市銀行Korean Savings Bank

這樣的問題跟西班牙的狀況相當類似, 值得注意的是韓國人的處理方式與西班牙人的處理方法有相當的差距.  西班牙人透過的是以整併的方式, 將比較羸弱的信用合作社整併入體質較為堅強的信用合作社, 避免倒閉跟中止營運. 然而韓國人是透過倒閉, 起訴非法行為的管理階層, 而透過2010年初推出了政府擔保的microloans (微型貸款)機制, (Smile Microcredit Banks),填補空缺出來的地方金融需求: 這些微型貸款機制將會嚴格審慎的審查貸款人的身分跟計畫. 以避免同樣的問題再發生.

以現在的狀況看來, 韓國解決問題的方式比西班牙有效果. 西班牙的Bankia在今年再次要求國家金援, 由國家接收, 並進一步需要歐盟的金援. 相反的, 韓國雖然在今年仍然有破產問題, 但目前金融危機並沒有進一步擴大, 而全國性的18家銀行也進入空缺的金融服務當中.

從西班牙的"白象"機場來談債權的代理問題

西班牙的白象  Telegraph (Oct.05, 2011)  by Fiona Govan

白象是什麼? 白象在英文的裡是常用的一個比喻， 指的是對持有者來說有點價值， 但維持成本卻跟價值不成比率的東西。 此詞的來源有一說是來自泰國。泰國國王討厭某人的話，就送他一隻白象，讓他在維持這隻白象的過程中受到困擾，甚至因為經濟壓力而破產。

這種事情，換到投資界，或是運動界都很常見。花了大把銀子併購公司，卻又達不到合理的投資報酬，倉皇出售。早些年的BenQ Siemens案，對台灣人並不陌生；而運動界一票"薪水小倫"，更是讓球迷們津津樂道。

不論是出售或者是破產清算之後，受害最大的，多半是出借資金的人。在現代金融體系中常是銀行，或者是出資的納稅人。問起來，誰都不想要當那個"出錢"養白象的冤大頭；但偏偏這世界又有這麼多冤大頭。

那麼怎麼辨別白象問題？怎麼樣停止當冤大頭？私部門上與公部門上有很大的不同。

西班牙: 歐債風暴的新中心

Spanish Prime Minister Holds Bank talks with EU leaders

基本上歐盟危機進入了西班牙場,
重點從愛爾蘭, 葡萄牙跟希臘, 轉移到經濟規模比較大的西班牙(或許後續的義大利)

上一篇全英文的文章, "學界如何看待歐洲經濟危機" 其實對於西班牙的狀況還挺適用的. 所以藉由這個機會把西班牙的狀況寫出來.

雖然台灣的媒體把"歐豬五國"(葡萄牙, 愛爾蘭, 義大利, 希臘, 西班牙) 寫成一樣的狀況, 但基本上西班牙跟希臘, 是兩個相當不同問題的情境. 一來是赤字狀態不同, 一來是金融業的狀況也相當不同. 這也就是為什麼歐盟現在的問題重心會放在西班牙, 因為西班牙真的是這所為"twin crisis"的經典案例!

Twin Crisis: Disentangle National Debt markets and Banking System

Distengaling twin crisis by Prof. Thorsten Beck (2012, Jun)

Twin Crisis: Sovereign Debts and Banks

There are 3 essential questions in the speech：
1.) how are banks and sovereigns being locked up together in this crisis?

2.) how cross-country banking should be？How might it help to cope with the problem？

3.) Is there any possibility to design a new financial instrument, specifically, a repackaged debt instrument, to tackle the current crisis？

Mascherano, key man in Barça Defence

Mascherano本季的出賽紀錄: 來源Sport.es

Mascherano, 後防線的老大

先來看一下在本季63場比賽中Mascherano的出賽資料

在後防站位四人的狀況下 (42場)
Mascherano跟普隊分擔了中衛的的狀況 共出賽了27場 其中中左/中右各為17/10場

在後防站為三人的狀況下 (21場)
Mascherano是主力 出賽18場 中衛的場次為11場  偶有客串左右側

已出場次數來說, Mascherano可以說是成功的融入體系中衛的角色, 如果不是踢得成功, 那Guardiola不會這麼穩定得讓他出賽

Mascherano的轉型

我們必須要注意到, Mascherano並不是從一開始就在這個位置上的. 我注意到這個球員是他還在Liverpool的時候, 而當時Xabi Alonso也還在利物浦. Masche跟Xabi 兩人形成所謂的Defensive Midfielder的角色. 下面的圖片就可以看得相當清楚.

Mascherano的站位: 來源: www.inthestands.co.uk

然而這個角色跟Central Back有什麼不一樣: 一來 如果你是Defensive midfielder, 你身後是還有人的. 也就是說, 你的角色比較多應該在於中場果斷的搶斷, 取回球權. 然而, 這樣的tackle可以比較明快一些, 畢竟如果你下身鏟球失敗, 你身後還是有後衛的.

但是如果你是CB就不同了, 如果是打343的話, 中衛鏟下去如果沒有成功就要看兩翼的人能不能補上, 如果是打442的話, 就得看另外一個中衛補防的功力跟默契是否可以搭配.

Mascherano在這兩個角色之間的轉換可以說相當成功, 我個人覺得這得歸功在他的特質

Mascherano的特質:

1.)鏟斷的準確以及快速起身搭配:

這不好空口說白話, 我們就來段影片 Tackle of Mascherano

以這段影片簡單來看, 也跟我有看一些球的狀況是一樣的. Mascherano對於marking的判斷相當好. 球會斷在他的腳下, 而且能夠快速的控制住球. 就算是失敗, 他起身補防的動作也相當的迅速. 這樣就壓縮到對方利用他失敗的鏟球而得利的空間.

還有, 他鏟的果決也不怕拿牌, 不過他鏟得這麼準通常也沒有給牌的空間就是.

2.) 速度:
這個我找不到影片, 只好空口說白話了:P

Mascherano補防的速度, 這是我在Pique恍神的比賽中感覺到的. 通長Pique還沒有意識到有洞或者是快要被人家穿越的同時, Mascherano會很神奇的出現在可能可以補上的位置.

當然, 這樣的球員還是有失敗的機會, 只要站位出現進退失據, 或者是對方前鋒身體素質跟速度跟你不相上下. Mascherano這個相對比較矮小的球員就會有可能吃鼈. 但是今年在中衛人手相當吃緊的狀況下, 我必須說2011-2012球季 Pep採用Mascherano的方式跟球員自己的表現可以說是可圈可點的

中資消費股: 傳說中歐洲股神跌倒的地方

歐洲股神 栽在中資消費股 (May 24, 2012:聯合報)
原文: May 12th, 2012
Here be Dragons: Anthony Bolton FT.com (想要看原文的可用這個標題查一下)

這篇文章某種程度肯定我之前的看法:
身為個人投資人投資中國的企業是一件風險很高的事情, 資訊不透明跟國家引導的經濟方案很容易讓投資人承擔無法評估的風險
甚至連身為機構投資人的Bolton都承擔了他無法預估的損失.

By the way, 撇開資訊不對稱不談, 我想Mr. Bolton對於中國的設想有幾個可以討論的地方:

Hang Sheng just gone below 20,000

Will China hold up for the coming years?

It is my daily routine to check the indices around the world before bed. And, surprisingly, Heng Sheng just gone below 20,000 today (May, 14th)

Is it just a one-day event?

I recall that earlier in March some of my friends cheered for their ETF trading in Taiwan stock exchange. They invested in a fund that markets as a tracking portfolio on Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Shenzhen indices. I was "a bit" skeptical back then. "A bit" serves double meanings here: On one hand, I think there is a point that Chinese economic model still the one keeps the international economic revolving, and there is nothing wrong for them to advocate more on domestic consumption. On the other, a strong doubts in my mind and cannot be taken away: Do Chinese people really have pocket money in hands to spend (to boost the domestic consumption?)

Before we go into details, I would like to point out two things that are well-noticed: Chinese people love to save: their saving-to-GDP ratio is constantly higher than OECD countries. Yet, China has just gone through a frenzy boom in real estate. They are crazy at buying houses, and the new generation holds nothing back for luxury consumption.

So, although they might have cash, how much they left in hands to spend?

First, I would like to address the saving issue, I remember the working paper I read last year, (Hung and Qian, 2010) The author argue a few factors that led to the result of high saving rate.The four major factors are: Low old dependency ratio, strong economic growth, weak social safety net, and Asian growth model (i.e. private sectors save for the national orchestrated industrialization plan: Then the cheap funds are channeled to "national projects") In my opinion, none of these factors can predict savings to be free up for consumption. Chinese population will grow older eventually, economic growth are clouded by continuous global crisis, social safety net is yet well-built, and the Asian growth model might lead to a new bubble. People, facing so many uncertainty ahead, would more likely to save up even more than less. In that occasion, the current policy can hardly achieved.

Then, the economic growth starts to show signs of turning points. Refereed to the beginning links I attached here, reported by Bloomberg. The export is slowing, the central bankers are taking some easing measures, and they have attempts to bolster their equity markets. These are not good signs of robust economic growth.

Is Hang Sheng getting below 20,000 a one-day issue? I certainly hope so. After all, we certainly need a few robust economies to keep the global growth go on. One engine is never enough, and a few more are always better. Sadly, now we might get one failing after the other.

The reality of Austerity Plans

On Bloomberg Businessweek, The summary revealed how austerity is carried out

The first thing I see this, I would like to make an attempt to categorize them.


A. Increase revenue: Tax
1.) VAT increase: On Fuel (Greece, Italy, and heard from friends that NL is going to do the same.)
2.) Property Tax: Ireland, Greece

B. Reduction of Cost:
1.) Cut back social benefits or charge fees: such as babe benefits(Spain, Hungary), student benefits(Hungary)
2.) Cut back government employee benefits or increase their working hours: Spain, France

C. Modification of labor law:
This comes more outside of this report. Germany Labor laws are being more flexible for temporary workers, France, Bloomberg just had an article discuss why in France there are so many 49 person companies, and these countries are also modifying labor code on benefits for labor. That could consider an attempt to make hiring much easier to create jobs.


It is hard to argue which "economic measures" are suitable for the on-going situations. Yet from time to time we still see these: A township head somehow still get a bigger paycheck, the rich can always find ways to evade tax, and the "friendly measures" to help companies create jobs does not work out the way they intend to be. Yet, the cut measures are very efficient. The education and public care facilities are the first to tumble....the VAT increase make no one, the poor and the rich , to escape.

So, what Austerity means? Are the knives on the neck of the right head?

A brief visit to London

Last week, I had a trip to London-Oxford-Cambridge, several observations come to my attention.


(New Updates: Apr. 22, 2013)
Here comes an interesting News coverage of Pret a Manger on Bloomberg. For visitors to London, you might love it. ;)

ECB推出的錢要給誰？Let's go to Arena

透過歐洲央行的計劃，歐洲各大銀行可說是被灌滿資金，問題是：錢要往哪裡去？西班牙銀行跟大家說，鬥牛場上見！！

WSJ呈獻了這篇文章，告訴讀者，西班牙的銀行如何拯救垂危的鬥牛場。

Europe Crisis spread to core?

Euro zone manufacturing data: doesn't look good! After the financial crisis then we move focus to manufacturing sectors.

1.) From peripheral to core: Germany/France experience downturn in manufacturing sectors.

France has weaker position as their exposure to southern european countries are larger. (than Germany) However, as placed in a major leader and a lender position, Germany cannot be left intact.

I recall another day I had another conversation with frineds, saying that Germany can "purposely" keep the EU-crisis go on to be benefit from devalued EURO, which can boost their export sector. I doubted about it then. My argument is that the weak banking sector would rise the funding cost, not even mention the demand shrinkage from the other member states.

The latest data pretty much shows that is not likely for Germany benefit too much from the weak EURO. Everybody gets burned, just to different degrees.

2.) rounds of bailouts to continue?

Not likely. ECB has pumped enough money into banking systems. They project a likely rebound in the second quarter but no one can say for sure. Unlike Fed, which pretty much left inflation behind and focus on growth and revival of economy, ECB has more inflation-sensitive attitude. The 2.6% inflation rate is in their vigilance zone.

The show will be on in the second quarter~

都市更新以及法律權利

這篇文章是基於士林文林苑都市更新案 , 論述基礎是在久遠之前對於Ronald Dworkin的理解上,Sovereign Virtue, 中文譯為"至上美德"

球員轉會跟主席

我(很無聊的)在PTT上面跟很多球友分享一篇文章:

夏天快要到了, 球員的轉會市場跟轉會的狀況, 主席的抉擇, 跟一些八卦花邊消息開始在網路上面激起一堆水花.

本週話題是俱樂部利益跟主席利益, 兩者之間是否一致的狀況. 這樣的討論其實對於商學院有點理解的人來說應該會有種似曾相似的感覺, 就像經理人是否把公司的利益跟他自己本身的利益分開, 或者是職員跟公司本身的利益分開, 簡單來說: 這就是代理人問題.

這個問題開始的起點是關於一篇今年夏天是否應該引進 Neymar的文章. 台灣的ESPN轉了一篇中國新浪的報導, 提到Rosell應該非常的想要這個deal能夠go through.

Rosell這個人的背景先講一下: 出身於商人家庭, 他早年事業是從南美洲發跡的, 在商場上最高的職位應該是巴西NIKE 的總裁, 而基於他在南美洲的影響力, 也為FCB引進了不少優秀的南美洲球員.

整體文章的重點應該變成: 如果引進Neymar到底符合的是FCB的利益, 還是符合Rosell以及他前東家在巴西的利益?

競技狀態:
FCB現在最需要的應該是防守的補強而不是進攻, 左後衛的位置基本上還沒有解答(流言Jordi Alba已經成局,但還是得靜觀其變); 中場防守人員一個年紀會逐漸增加(Puyol)一個會偶爾給球隊太多驚喜(嚇) (Pique), 右後衛應該還是D. Alves的天下, 但是沒有人是鐵打的總是需要有人替補. 小朋友可能可以頂上來, 但是還是不要揠苗助長的好.

中場目前看來是相對沒有問題的, Cesc的引進解決了很多問題, 而Xavi+Iniesta應該還能夠用上好一陣子, 防守方面有Busquets跟Mescherano, 而板凳上還有Keita 跟小朋友們~

前場應該是最擁擠, 最沒有老化問題, 也還有新人可以練的狀況.

Neymar是個好球員, 但是今年夏天可以說是最不需要他的時候.

代理人問題:
我在那篇文章裡面大膽了提出兩個代理人問題的假說:
1.) Rosell 需要從他自己的利益出發, 而他的思考邏輯就是個商人
2.) 而不管是誰當俱樂部的主席, 都希望能夠讓俱樂部成為是他的一個媒介, 讓他個人的利益能夠最大化.

然後從這幾年的事件裡面去找是否羅塞爾表現出來的行為可以"驗證"這兩個假說的狀態是否為真.

討論的事件:
1.) Rosell跟前主席Laporta的路線不合之爭:
2.) Rosell對俱樂部財政以及對於上任之後對Laporta以及Cruyff的對待方式
3.) Rosell 在Qatar Foundation贊助的處理方式
4.) Rosell 在Ibra轉會的態度
5.) Rosell在Cesc轉會的態度
6.) Rosell跟Pep對於今年夏天轉會可能的爭議

當然, 有人會認為這些事件單純只是分離的事件, 或者是說, 這些事件的結果可以有多方面的解讀, 也就是說, 每個人可以有自己的詮釋: 如果我要把前六件事件整理成為支持前兩點假說的證據也可以; 或者是說, 我要解讀成為Rosell是個真心為俱樂部好的主席也可以.

得到的結論可以非常不同, 他可能是個很好的在兩者Balanced的主席, 知道什麼時候他自己應該退讓, 什麼時候他自己應該要堅持或者是協助其他人去滿足一些條件; 或者是他沒有忘記他自己商人的角色, 希望讓自己的商業利益最大化.

在整理的過程中我一直質問自己的角度是: 到底什麼是Rosell的incentive?他把巴薩隆納打造成為世界競技狀態頂級的俱樂部最大的好處是為了誰? 其中對他來講最大的利益會是什麼?

我想這會是在今年夏天在關注轉會議題的同時我會不斷想到的一個問號.

在學理上我們一直認為, 如果把代理人的利益跟委託人 的利益一致化, 那麼可以讓兩者之間的衝突最小, 對於代理組織的效率應該是有幫助的. 然而, 再前一波金融危機的時候卻告訴我們不見得是這樣的. 從雷曼兄弟的狀況, 來看, 就算所有人的利益或多或少都綁在一起, 並沒有辦法完全消除代理人問題的發生.

After all, 只要我們有組織, 有委託, 有代理, 這些狀況就會不斷的出現

Messi marked the history last night.

Barcelona - Granada 5:3, 2012 Mar. 20
Messi score a hat-trick and then broke the record of César Rodríguez Álvarez , a record held for 57 years(since 1955) (he has 234 now while Cesar has 232)

That's see where he score his first goal, in 2005. I would say this might be the favorite way for him to score, lift the ball elegantly over the goalkeeper. (and seeing Ronaldinho lifted Messi on his back...so touching)
Goal.com wrote a report here, I do not think I can write a better one than theirs. Yet, I would like to share this video on youtube, the annual Estrella Damm

The success of Messi is not a coincidence. If you have seen him playing for Argentina you might see a quite different players. I am not saying he is not a great player, of course he is! Yet, without the full support of the team, it is not quite possible to achieve things of this height today. He is a lucky boy, with Pere Gratacos(his B-team period coach), Frank Rijkaard and Pep Guardiola, with Ronaldinho and with Xavi and Iniesta. With so many great teammates he grows along and the 30-year tradition of La Masia.

This is "US", this is Barcelona, and as a fan of such team, I deeply understand the quotation "Som UN"

p.s. the first part of the video shows how the lover of a Barcelona fan is struggling. We always can make up some stories linked back to the team and make a whole lecture of it. (:P) I think the final part is what we Barcelona fan should do, and left the lecture part to our team and Estrella Damn (:PPP)

Another two BRIC countries, China v. India.

As I wrote in the article regarding to Brazil, I mentioned that BRIC countries have quite different economic base in nature. The news today reflects quite well on the difference for BRIC on this economic growth crossroad.

1. Inflation is the major concerns for China and India:
US stocks fall as commodity decline on China concern
The reporter points out the slowdown in China, particularly in the housing markets, drives the commodity price lower today. This is not a fresh story that China wants to curb their real estate markets and control some  more on inflation. However, such attempts may hurts their economic growth further, yet we did not see the immediate consumption growth comes along yet. Since both expected inflation and policy uncertainty are high, (when I talks of uncertainty, I mean the uncertainty on the results.), I do not see why Chinese citizens may let loose their purse. Plus, a sizable proportion of their income might already pledge into the housing market, which won't be available for the following years to come.

Shanghai Index lost 1.36% yesterday, a stronger retreat may be seen before April.

India Holds rate, as inflation accelerates
India also has similar problems. Their central banker just decided to keep the rate high to curb inflation. Unlike Brazil, which cut their interest rate to boost growth, India and China remain very cautious on the domestic inflation since they mostly has to import the commodities that are needed for manufacturing and exporting sectors.

2. Manufacturing, Consumption and Infrastructure:
As for now, Brazil tends to focus more on manufacturing, while China are trying to create more domestic demands. Brazil has the opportunity from two big games, so I would think it is a brighter future for them, as long as they take the chance well. As for China, the key is still on housing market. If they can free some more capital from housing projects, such capital could do much more in other sectors.

India is still a terra incognita for me, yet my best guess is from what a friend,who frequently travel there, advises me, focus is on infrastructure. He mentioned to me that India is still quite in lack of some modern infrastructure as we take for granted. Traffic, power supply, water supply, etc. The only problem is government deficit, now runs some 5% of their GDP. Could government play a major roles to push further public investment? Their capacity is in doubts.

Would BRIC icon fade its charms for the following 3 years? I would say a no, yet it won't shine as bright as what we have expected before.

Brazil, Brazil

The performance of Placido Domingo, Jose Carreras and Luciano Pavarotti, "Brazil , Brazil"  in 1994, in Roma.

As for this blog, I am not going to talk about opera or classic music(although that is a field that I enjoy a lot) Yet, some recent updates about Brazil really worth some attentions.

To start with, I would like separate BRIC into two groups of countries: I personally really do not like BRIC, or BRICS (with South Africa) as a combined concept. They are actually two types of very different economies: Brazil and Russia have a great share of GDP based on natural resources; while China and India has a strong focus on manufacturing and service industries. They are by no means alike.

Now, let's focus on Brazil:

1.) Brazil, the rise of natural resource super-power
This is the basic ideas of Brazil. Lots of people views it as a natural resource super power. Iron Ore, Oil reserves, corn (turns into ethanol), and soybeans. Overall, it exports everything that matters in our daily life. This week there is a news, regarding to recent GSCI commodity Index rise on Bloomberg.

It is quite fair to say, "When Brazil sneezes, the whole commodity world catches cold."

2.) Capital control and interest rate:
What's the major concerns for a export-oriented economy? Exchange rate!

As Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff once mentioned as "monetary tsunami" as all countries, the developing or the developed alike, are competing to depreciate their currency.
So, they try to prevent capital inflows that could appreciate their currency. How?

2-1): Tax Measurements:
Impose capital tax on borrowing on foreign currency(6%), yet allow their exporter to hedge on such risk. This is pretty much what every countries are doing now.
2-2): Interest Rate:
Reduce the core interest rate(Selic rate), the key purpose of doing so is to reduce the speculative inflows that prepare to pocket the profit from the interest rate difference.
2-3): Open Market Operation: Brazilian central bank simply purchase U.S. dollar from the market.

3.) Latin America international organization:

IDB, Inter-American Development Bank, warns that now there is building up a crisis environment in Latin America. and they prepare to raise a contingency funds  that might help the region to shelter some key sectors from possible crisis hits. These sectors are social development, public infrastructure, and SME enterprises.

From all of these, several things come to my notice:
1.) Inflation and Interest Rate:
As for Brazil now runs an inflation rate of 5.8%(12 months from Feb, 2011 to Feb, 2012), given their 2011 GDP growth of 2.7%, Brazilian economy now really in a shaky status. To run a interest rate cut and a pro-export exchange rate is quite danagerous.

I still recall, in later 2009, I had this discussion with my professor back then, talking of the possible effect of appreciation to curb on the inflation rate. How it was reported by Bloomberg regarding to India's choice to appreciate their currency. However, such measure might not be suitable for Brazil since they are actually the exporter of natural resource rather than the importer.

My guts feeling tells me that, Brazil might fall to the similiar case as other natural resource exporters. They has the resources, yet they only export such ingredients. The fortune they sit on prevent them from build up the capacity to transform these resources into more valuable products. Take oil for exapmle, they pump oil from the sea, however, they lack the capacity to refine oil locally. Therefore, the major profit of owning such resources would still be pocketed by other international companies. (that happens in Mexico) They end up buying more expensive, refined oil product abroad.

To shake off such reliance, they might need to swift their economy focus. Such things are yet seen to be initiate.

2.) Domestic consumptions and big games:
Brazil is going to host 2014 world cup and 2016 summer Olympic. What does it mean? It means there is a great number of construction will be needed along the way. Actually, it is a prefect timing for Brazil to foster their local capacity on industrial goods. In that sense, they could build up their own sustainable domestic economic force rather than relying on export.

3.) Investment decisions?
I actually just urge my family and friends to clear up their Latin America holdings. The exit decision merely reflects the increase of uncertainty and a good timing to take profits. yet I am still optimistic about the development of the region. Brazil is certainly a place shall deserve a great attention of world capital.

Disclaimer:  The article, and related links, are only express the views of the news agnecy and the blogger. People who read this article has to reach their own investment decision.

Stress test, Banking industry in EU and US

It seems stress test is the hot topic for today.

I was a bit surprised when I browsed through Bloomberg news. I was expecting to see more report on "ratios." However, I see more dollar amount of loss for the banks under different stress. Such presentation of stress test recalls my memories of the other article I read few days ago. Then it is clear for me how and why they express the stress test in this way.

Here comes this Dealbook article first:

What Europe could have learned from the US bank bailout? by Peter Evais

There are two things to look at here.
1.) Capital ratio:
There are two ways you  might book up the capital ratio, you raise more fresh capital or just reduced the exposure of risk of your assets. For the later approach, the demand to improve "adequate" ratio might eventaully hurt the industries and companies, which would lose their credits from banks.

Europe and United States have quite different ideas on such ratio thing. As quoted from the article, William C. Dudley, the president of FED of NY, mentioned that they not only look at the ratio and also look at the absolute amounts.  In other words, the supervisory body wants banks to raise capital, and they cannot deliberately reduce their risk exposure.

Therefore, United States has another focus here. If these banks cannot make a cut on their risky exposure, how much loss they might have to face during the most adversary times?

2.) Possible loss under the worse scenario:

The stress test results are out from United States. The worse scenario is, the unemployment rate at 13%, 50% stock price drop and 21% of housing price drop. Then they assess the possible loss for each bank, and measure their possible capital ratio under such scenario.

Surprisingly, Citi is among those who failed the test. 15 out of 19 banks under the same test pass it.

Eventually, Banks should be the institutions which can absorb risks, especially during hte bad times. As I see, the various American legislation movement now are moving toward that direction. Banks cannot take too many risks, and  they should have enough reserve to go through the bad times, for themselves and for the public. I personally like the ideas behind this logic. Just do not know how exactly it would turn out to be alike for banking industries.

歐美各國這一陣子都在給自己的銀行進行壓力測試,主要目的是希望檢測這些主要銀行在經濟危機的狀態下是否有足夠的資本去承擔損失並且度過難關.

然而Peter Evais在Dealbook的一篇文章顯示了美國人跟歐洲人對於在銀行資本適足率處理上的差異. 當然, 這個比率是得看的, 但是美國人更在乎絕對的金額.

會這麼做很簡單, 因為增加資本適足率有兩種方式, 一種是充實自己的資本, 但另外一種方式就是把風險性資產降低, 換句台灣人常聽的話, 就是 "雨天收傘"

美國的各大銀行前一陣子才因為"雨天收傘太快"跟聯邦政府達成一個和解的協議(主要就是在房地產查封的過程過快而沒有進行應有的程序) 而美國政府也意識到, 如果銀行業不能夠成受衝擊而直接進行降低風險資產的動作的話, 那麼對於整體經濟的衝擊是不容小覷的.

因此本周發布的壓力測試消息主要都著重在銀行可能的損失金額, 以及他們現有的資本是不是可能承受這樣的損失. 我不確定下一部他們要做的是什麼, 但可以預期的是會更加限制銀行業可以承做的風險性資產範圍, 以及加速鼓勵銀行進行充實資本的計畫.

歐盟呢? 我不知道, 我只回憶起因為雨天收傘在倒掉了一家瑞士的石化廠. 雖然國際清算銀行也指出, 歐盟區的銀行的確有出售風險性資產跟減少貸放的狀況, 然而其他的借款者因此而進入這個市場所以對於產業的影響是較小的. 但是無法否認的是這個從去年十二月開始的新政策讓歐元區特定的借款成本增加, 對於整體歐元區的復甦事實上是非常不利的.



Language tense for time preference, an academic argument

For the Netherlands, the future is NOW!!

The other day in the behavioral economics class, I discussed such ideas with my fellow classmates , concerning whether the verb tense might influence some economic behaviors in different cultures. It seems some scholars indeed try to use quantitative models to explore such effect.

The working paper  in January done by Yale Economics Professor Keith Chen indicated that, for people using languages with weak future-time reference(FTR), they would have higher saving rates. The reason is that, they perceive the future as PRESENT! Consequently. any problems that might happen in the future would not be perceived that "remote." Therefore, people in this language group will react to problems as if it is "NOW!" 

The immediate comparison is between German and English. I am not familiar with German, yet, as the author suggest, in German you could say "Morgen regnet es" ,directly translated as "It rains tomorrow." Yet, in English it should be written as "It will rain tomorrow" Usage of "will" or not is a key indication of strong or weak FTR form. As noted in this case, German speakers could take a future event  as present one and start taking precautionary measures to deal with such event.

The second interesting results is, after adjusted to such effect, people in southern Europe actually save MORE than their Northern counterparts. In other words, if southern Europeans were speaking in the same language structure as the Northern Europeans, then they would have saved more than these Northern parts!

Language is playing a role in our economic decisions!

Federal States of EU?

Yesterday I just had such discussion with my neighbor on the opposite side of hall. It is quite interesting for some of our discussion point.

1.) Could that be a better rescue package if EU would have been a federal states?

His answer is YES. The coordination of EU member states are quite weak now and he considers such weakness is the major reason why it takes so long for EU to reach a deal for the crisis. It is never be easy to reach an agreement that please all.

2.) How commom European might think of the idea of federal states?

History is a devil here. The general public might not happy with such ideas when continental Europe was torn aparted more than once. Particularly, the recent two world war was central-staged in European theater. Such trauma is not easy to mend. Economically speaking, even Greece today is still paying something they owe Germany during the war. (which was forced  upon! the story is quite astonishing and I am not sure of the source of such claim) I still recall that when Austria is not happy of Liechtenstein entering into the EEA agreement due to some territorial problems that is not fully solved in the Empire days....

This question is a bit side-tracked when I talk of the Netherlands. He personally favors Republic over the Monarchy democracy. He believes that Dutch people should have more public consensus mentality if they have been given a Republic system. Actually, when Taiwan was once ruled by Dutch, the Netherlands was back then a Republic system. The continuous wars just brought down such system and other country would "install"(well, that is pretty much his perspective) a king on the Dutch people....

3.) Do EU has the capacity to become a federal states?

This is more my own question. I still recall the day when I were in Norway and had the competition law class. Professor just point out the ECJ do not really have the capacity to handle all the cases and duly ruling is extremely important for business world. If it even comes to more general issues, it could still take forever to solve if the current EU system do not have the capacity to deal with that.

He suggests that it should starts from the core body of EU, if the core can function it right, then the expansion on the power can be progressed in schedule. Just like what they have done before in economic integration.

We will see, this idea/topic is truely interesting now.

ING+荷蘭政府 v.s. 歐盟(1)：金融風暴中的國家紓困

圖片來源：Jock Fistick/Bloomberg

大家還記得在台灣過去經常舉辦的ING路跑賽嗎？從2008年成為最後一屆。面對2008年美國次貸風暴，ING需要出售資產來彌補巨幅虧損。在台灣的業務就轉售與富邦。爾後，ING在 2009-2013年，一系列對於其全球各地的轉投資業務出售。
背後，有甚麼樣的故事？

Bond coupon? you got a residence permit!

Ireland seek to lure millionaire with visa bond

Love Guinness? Love Gaels culture? Cannot have enough of Irish ?
Invest Ireland! :P

EU and G20

“Until we see the color of their money, I don’t think you are going to see any money from the rest of the world.” George Osborne, U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer 

G20 rebuff EU's calls for help

Is EU really get some back-ups from other international institutions?

BRICS (S for South Africa?) saying they will go along with IMF, their funding commitment would come along only if Europe has clear plan and open more power sharing to them. (As I said in the preivous post, they are not giving money for nothing.)

World Bank President Zoellic also point out that European problem has no quick fix. The problems has three interacting perspectives: Sovereign Debt, Banking System and Growth. A structure reform is needed for EU zone.

German parliment approve the second bailout for Greece. It will certainly buy Europe some time, yet the eventual resolution is yet reached.

"March of course has 31 days"   said by European Commission President Jose Barrosso.

We will see. (ya, this is EU Drama season 4, if you count year 2009 is season one) Stay tuned.

228事件, 65周年

那些年, 不只是恐怖是白色的, 對於年輕的我們來說, 記憶也是白色的.

1947年發生的事件只是個開頭, 後續1949-1987年的戒嚴時期, 乃至最後1991年動員戡亂時期臨時條款的最終結束, 台灣到底在那些時間點發生了什麼事? 對於我們來說雖然不能說是完全空白(國編本教科書還是多少打點擦邊球的) 事實的真相總是埋藏在不同的文獻裡, 而這些文獻的所有者又相當龐雜, 再加上台灣的政治因素兩黨都企圖取得詮釋的權力.真相的陳述跟顯現, 處於一種先天不足, 後天不良的狀態.

EU drama

2012, EU problem is not gone, but going on.

I feel like to comment a bit on this article in January, yet I find myself short in time. (who doesn't? :P) Although there is some delays, I found it even more suitable to address this now.

Political contingency:
This NY times article pointed out some uncertainty ahead of on-going EU debt crisis, mostly from political perspectives. Greece will have election(April, 2012), France will have election(two-staged election, late April and early May). We shall never downplay the possible political shake-ups in EU regions. Troubled economy or not, people will cast their ballots to represent their feelings.

Does money float to where it is most needed?
Other news catches my eyes as well. ECB, as mentioned in this article, place Bazooka for confidence already. The ECB policy is clear: we support bank, bank support national governments by buying their debts. As for the private sector? will the bank open their pocket generously to companies? Not likely. The biggest independent refinery in Europe, Petroplus, filed bankruptcy last month. I still remember the Bloomberg news report on how banks are hardening their positions on companies. Given the economic condition now I would say the companies will have even tougher time in the years to come.

Having enough about public debt news? how about some private debt issues?
The overall private sector debts? nothing to be optimistic: This Reuters report today gives us some looks on the private debt/GDP ratio in Eurozone countries. We could skipped the troubled nations, since we all know they gotta perform poorly on that measure. Yet,  Sweden, Denmark, and the Netherlands are among countries that have private debt/GDP level above the 160% cutoff set by the Commission. Surprise!

So, keep Stanley Fisher's words in mind. Who is Stanley Fisher? The current governor of Israel Central bank. And the mentor of Fed Chairman Ben. Bernanke and also taught Mario Draghi, the ECB President.

Next two month will continue to be interesting.

China-EU: Taking the headlines again.

How Chinese government perceive EU debt crisis? How the media protray their stance is quite interesting. Personally I think Mr. Wen and other Chinese officials are literally saying the same things. However, how media phrase them are quite interesting.

News coverage last year(2011):
Wen's Speech, Sep. 14th in Dalian (Telegraph, UK) and
Opinion from Chinese officials, Dec. 4 (NY times, US)

EU and Afganistan

Afganistan's Future

This article comes in mind when I met a few Afganistans here. They came to Holland as refugee and now the second generations finding a way to help their motherlands, as well as business opportunities.

Apparently Dutch governments have some ideas in mind to help Afganistan in a different way. (I did not check with the official policies yet learn from the talks with those Afganistan friends) They help to offer some low-interest financing for companies doing export-import with Afganistan. The company I know, selling heavy-duty machinery there to help reconstructions for basic infrastructure needs, plan to help Afganistan to set up a logistic networks. That will spread goods and services in need to ordinary people.

Their ambition is huge! Not sure how it might help out for those people.

A few FCB News: Pep to renew? Keita to Liverpool?

Keita going to Liverpool?
Reported by the SUN, such news source is usually not taken seriously. However, it worth taking a good look of it.

Keita is 32, and playing regularly as a substitution in the second-half, usually have 15-20 minutes, if not more. He is a good solid substitution, although every time we play him I feel our team would run out of good steam.

He just played well in African Nations Cup, that might help to boost the price, and also with the second team youngsters coming to the first team. (Thiago is the most noted and may consider him as a successoor of Xavi), the time for Keita would be really limited. Maybe it is good for both parties to depart. However, with there are still three titles we are competing for, a man extra is always the advantage!
Prediction: Summer transfer, with some $15-20 m.

Guardiola to Renew?
It seems the club has some difficulty to convince Guardiola to stay. Well, the coach mentioned before that, this would be his last year as coach, due to a great pressure to manage a team. However, the management won't want him to leave since he would be the one who could motivate players most. If there is another alternative, that would be Luis Enrique, who is now the coach of AS Roma.

Anyway, in Pep, we trust. That is the words we use most among my Catalan friends and fellow cules. We will see how things develop.

Barça B, Brilliant Young Players in form
This year we have two impressive young players coming into scene. Issac Cuenca and Cristian Tello. They are bold and daring, in their apearance in Copa del Rey games. It helps a lot when we need extra "feet" to compete on all fronts. (Thiago and dos Santos are not mentioned here because I knew them already.)

One more player to be mention is Javiar Espinosa, dubbed as "New Iniesta" I did not really see him play but he jumps into the news lately. He is very white, from de la Mancha, and also love wine. (mentioned in report)

It seems we have our second generation growing. (second Xavi=Thiago, Second Iniesta=Espinosa?) We shall just wait and see more development in them. Although it is too early to tell, I am still quite postive on the training system so far.

Jordi Alba or others?
After watching the highlight of the second leg of the semifinal, I believe Jordi Alba would be a better player for us to solve the left back solution. Very fast, very strong, and also have a good sense in the attack coordiation. I do not think any other players, even with better talents, can play so well-integrated into our formation now. The player has a great incentive to play for Barça. (ok, shall I mentoned again that he is Catalan?:P), and he could be merged with the team in no time!  I am so looking forward to see a positive transfer news coming in summer, if not earlier.

西班牙在歐債風暴

增訂: Debt/GDP % in EURO zone: NY times interactive
(相較於西班牙, 德法一直有較高的Debt/GDP ratio)

我特別會提到西班牙是因為對於這個國家比較熟悉, 此外對於台灣媒體把整體歐洲陷入債信困境的國家都打成一樣的類型感到莫名其妙. 歐洲很大, 每個國家都有不一樣的特色. 如果你放棄進一步看到每個國家差異的狀況, 大概就會跟某知名女性節目主持人一樣: 做了一個某國的專題之後那個國家就馬上陷入危機(i.e. 愛爾蘭)

Austerity, a re-visit.

There are two articles come into my mind today, while Greece (and other countries) v. trioka (i.e EC, ECB, and IMF)

Austerity v. Europe by Javier Solana
Does Austerity promote economic growth? by Robert Schiller

Debt should not be accumulated to a sky-racketing level, that is for sure. Not every country in the world enjoy the privilege of such borrowing power as U.S. However, austerity promoted so hard recently should not be the single solution as well.

In article of Javier Solana, he mentioned of the Great Depression period, while austerity arguably became the major killer of economy. In Schiller's article, he cited a early Dutch-born English philosopher's poem, suggesting the possible further shrinkage of consumption and employment in EURO-zone.

Yet, the next questions would be, what's the alternative?

1. Austerity + QE..that is what they are doing now, yet as I point out in another article, QE may not help the flow of money into the manufacturing sector, but only to finance and government sectors. (and who knows how these government sectors gotta spend???)

2. Austerity + Fiscal policy regulation (by a particular commission in EU structure): This is something under discussion. Should they create a commission "especially" for Greece? or if they apply to all member states, will France fall under the next prey?

3. No Austerity but structural reform: including a board-based pension cut, job stimulus package and tax-incentives for entrepreneurship: which makes more new firms and create more jobs?
4. ??????

By the way, as Javier Solana happens to serve in PSOE government as a Foreign Minister, he might have more sympathy with what PSOE did before. Yet, honestly, in terms of budget balance, PSOE actually did a great job. The Spanish government deficit was turn positive under PSOE hands, and then remained so until 2007, when they tried to use stimulus to be against economic recession.

Oh, a very interesting paper by Brender and Brazen comes to my notice. (They are from bank of Israel and U Maryland, respectively). They study  the expansionary policy (i.e. huge government spending project) and re-election probability. It does not help, or even lower, the probability of incumbent to be reelected. Sorry, PSOE, you should learn this earlier.

ECB lends out to Banks, Banks let out to ....well, mostly States!

Banks are reluctant to provide liquidity to those in need

Well, this news reminds me to another afternoon discussion with my dutch friend, Mr. S.

Mr. S: "ECB has to do what they do, the liquidity is needed, and the market is more calm now."
Me: "Yes, and, no. By the way, are liquidity really goes to those in need?"

If I recalled the package right, ECB provided Banks what they requested. And the capital shortage are mainly attributed to the bad government bond positions. These banks are provided liquidity, roll-over to new bonds, and the yields drop into a "reasonable" level. However, are those in the main street really feeling relieved?

Probably not.

With consumers cutting back their spending, there must be a few more problems on the road.

Bumpy!

Tax, unequally.

The problem is not only between the rich and the poor, but the overall system.

I just wrote an article about tax few days ago, arguing that,  from academia perspectives, there is a good reason to set tax rate high for the rich. However, it looks quite different in reality.

Mr. James Ross, as mentioned in this article, paid 102% of his taxable income to governments of all sort. (if you consider local, state, federal government separately) Well, such percentage could be quite different if you talks of adjusted gross income, he paid around 20% tax. Compared to some other professions, he still pays relative less in respect to the adjusted gross income. (A professor in the article paying 26%, an architect couple pay some 31%, an author/journalist paying 26%, and a TV show host pay almost 50%!)

how Romney's tax rate is alike, comparing to other high-income individuals?

Honestly, reading this article just helps us to realize how complex it could be to design a tax system. It is not simple as raise the tax rate a bit here and reduce a bit there. It needs some overall structural  overhauls.
It is not even a rich-poor game, it is a fair and unfair game. Of course, among the rich, there are still a huge discrepancy out there!

So, we should not hate the rich, better hate the system! (and someone should fire their accountant!)

前一陣子我才寫了一篇文章, 談到課稅得公平性, 最近因為共和黨總統參選人Romney的稅單被公布了, 稅率的議題在美國又有得吵了.

這位羅斯先生所支付的稅款, 如果以他的應稅所得來計算的話, 支付了102%的稅率. 也就是說, 他所繳交的稅款比他的可應稅所得還要高. 但如果以他的總所得來看的話, 他也大概付了20%的稅(well, 還是比Romney的少, ooops), 但是他也真的把他很大一部分的所得捐出去了, 所以用102%的稅來評斷他的狀況(也就是他還是得從他的存款中提錢出來繳稅), 也不誇張.

這篇文章也列舉了幾個社會上的名人/專業人士的稅單狀況, 試圖反映的狀況是: 創造雇用的人並沒有從創造雇用的過程中獲利, 而如果你的所得中很大的比率是"薪資", 那麼你很有可能是那個倒大楣的人, 就算你在怎麼有錢也需要上繳國庫!!

這不僅僅是一場富人窮人的戰爭, 而是如何修改體系的戰爭

2012台股展望

幾個對於台灣股市的想法:

1.) 台灣公司的終端市場在哪?

台灣的產業現在大概有三個主要的終端市場:美國, 歐盟, 中國. 會依照這個順序的原因, 是因為統計數據上來看很難確立我們對於中國出口之後, 有多少零組件經過組裝走向歐美市場. 歐洲市場在2012年應該沒有什麼特別的展望了, 倒是北美市場應該會有相較於去年較好的表現.

2.)台灣整體產業:

台灣的產業政策雖然急欲突破代工的一環, 目前還沒有辦法看到太大的進展. 如果代工產業是台灣整體製造業的宿命, 那我們得問的下個問題是:在代工中間找到什麼樣的利基?

我自己的偏好是具有特長的小公司: 在代工產業鍊中的特長, 指的是整體制程上或者是在技術簡便性上給予客戶更多的好處.  過去的一年對於台灣公司的幾項了解: 在工具機械中間有幾家公司值得注意, 另外, 在光學零件的公司當中也有應得到相當矚目.

如果說代工工廠應該是專注在製造流程上的簡便跟機具的設計的話, 那麼通路商會成為代工產業最好的朋友. 雙方各自經營自己的專業之後的結合可以為台灣的電子產業創造相當不錯的價值. 電子通路台灣的廠商較具規模的兩家, 應該不難注意.

除了這些之外, 我自己的偏好還是在農業與食品的股票上, 這些產品在經濟景氣不確定的狀況下, 是相對穩定的選擇.

3.) 國際環境:

成熟市場:
美國景氣復甦的狀況應該是相對穩定, 雖然經濟復甦力道仍弱, 聯準會願意在任何時候介入的狀況下讓羸弱的金融體系還有更多的時間來應對經濟環境的變化. 相較於美國, 歐盟的政策決定仍然停滯不前. 我會再接下來的一個禮拜中撰寫幾篇到現在的發展狀況.

相較於歐盟這種緩慢的政治決議躊躇不前的狀態, 私部門減少舖險的的動作就相對果斷,以金融業來說, ING進一步減持他們在海外的投資部位, 持續出售他們在亞洲以及拉丁美洲的事業. 而其他的金融業業正積極的尋求出售手邊的資產或者是找尋新的投資人的計畫.

以非金融業來說, 在歐盟的許多公司也正與其他海灣國家洽談投資方案, 雖然說昨天Spanair無預警停飛事件是洽談投資失敗之後的例子, 但是我們可以預期在歐洲景氣不佳的狀況下, 新興市場的資金可以讓歐洲的企業注入新的活水. (不過歐洲人在世界經濟的主導性會持續減弱)

新興市場: 我一項不是中國fan, 主要是因為他們的數據不透明. 香港, 上海股市去年的表現, 進一步削減我對於中國市場的興趣. (如果經濟狀況真的這麼好, 歐債出問題中國應該會可以像海灣國家一樣對歐洲企業大舉進攻才是)
印度去年經歷了令人失望的一年, 俄羅斯高度仰賴天然資源, 去除掉這三個市場之後, 我對於新興市場比較有興趣的是南美洲跟東南亞. 南美洲經歷過多次的經濟波動, 當地政府對於經濟政策相對來說會較有警覺. (相較於中國, 在改革開放後尚未經歷過任何大的泡沫, 現在看來是個更加危險的狀態, 雖然中國的專業官僚在國際社會上一向有不差的評價就是) 而東南亞(印尼, 星,馬)基本來說勞動力仍然豐沛, 政經結構這幾年沒有太大的動亂, 基礎建設有一定的水平, 未來一年的經濟成長應是相對樂觀.

如果有台灣公司著重在美洲與東南亞的市場, 是可以考慮的投資對象.

結語: 如果沒有新的危機出現的狀況, 2012年的第一季應該可以看到該有的解決方案出現, 整體國際的經濟前景, 或好或壞, 應該都會有比較明朗的態勢.當然, 上面的所有文字並沒有隱含任何投資建議, 如果有任何閱讀這篇文章的朋友都得在自己做些功課進行自己的投資判斷.

El Clasico in Copa del Rey, two legs drama 國王杯

My appreciation for blogger Sam Thompson for pictures.

I was planning to write about this as soon as the first leg is closed. Yet, a consolidated two-leg review should be more interesting.

The result is good, as for a Barcelona fan. Yet, the second leg really created some tension. Although I always trusted on Pep Guardiola on his decisions, I have to say sometimes I am really confused of his decisions. In the second leg there are some good examples I will speak.


First leg: Santiago Bernabeu (Real Madrid 1-2 FC Barcelona)

On Attack:
Barcelona's attacking tactic is simple. Control the ball and try to find the gap in the defence line. As I mentioned before, the summer transfer was quite successful, Sanchez and Fabregas prove their value through their consistent performance.

The score came in the least expecting way. One was from the corner freekick, ending with the header of Puyol! The other was the result of rapid passing, directly from the right end side to the left end, with neat final touch of Abidal.

For the first goal, we did little on the free-kick after Ronaldihno age. Occasionally, we could expect a high ball from corner or a decent free kick around box zone, yet we have more short pass open to fit  the tactic: control and movement! For the second goal, we switched attacking side from one end to the other. And the Madrid defence was so puzzled and simply could do little about it. Although I would expect Iniesta in that position, Abidal's persence made the night. (oh, his dance was certainly amusing...:P)

On Defence: Ronaldo made his goal through Barcelona defence. I would say all Barcelona player have done what they could do to defence Ronaldo. He is a world-class player, and a world class player can score in any difficult position. No one to be blamed here.

Second leg: Camp Nou (FC Barcelona 2-2 Real Madrid)

The second match for Barcelona should be quite relaxing. They do not have to do much extra, just doing what they are good at should be fair enough to eliminate Real. Yet, Mourinho is not someone who would sit and wait for that 90 mins passed away. Like a wounded and cornered animal, he would try any possibility to break Barcelona confidence and at least make the score.

On Madrid Side:

I would say, Real Madrid simply waste too many opportunities in the first half, especially the in the first 20 minutes. They could have done better!! One thing I do not understand is the reservation of Benzema on bench. He caused lots of troubles for Barcelona as I recalled in several games, at least in the first leg of this series.

The starting lineup of Mourinho has nothing fresh, I would consider RM side can do better if Benzema could have played the first half. Yet the substitution was quite brilliant and effective. They not only continuously pressed harder on Barcelona defence line, which looked messy and neverous for most of the second half, but also has make the ball move more rapidly, which create several excellent opportunities: and they capitalized two.

On Barcelona Side:

After a few bad situations, Barcelona come back to dominant the scenario. The goal of Pedro is brilliant and the the blast from Alves is another amazing demonstration of our diversified fire power.

Yet the second half is disastrous.

First of all, Mourinho made some good substitution. Bezema has a fresh power to sprint among the defence line and Callejon and Graneno make their defence line more compact. They pressed hard as they should be, since they have nothing to lose given the results in first half. Not sure if that is from confidence or from relaxation, Barcelona players did not respond to such pressure well. Typically, they would resume the control and retreat to back to deep the horizon of game, which make such pressure works in vain at the end. However, they conced the ball easily and eventaully that made them paid.

Secondly, I do not understand Guardiola on this point. Responding to Real's press, Mescherano would be my number one to put in play. A tough guys can interrput Real's attacking waves and ease up the pressure on defence. Yet, replacing Fabregas with Thiago means that we would have a rather young player in midfield, heavy the workload of Xavi and Messi, and weaken the organization of possible counter attack.

Some fellow Barcelona fan complained of the control in the second half, and attributed that to the early exit of Iniesta. (Off in 29 mins, Injured in this match) I do not think that is the reason, since we already played a fabulous first half without him. And the last 20 mins of first half present a strong dominance. We literally made Real players chasing us with a very good short-distant, high-speed accurate passing. We did not replicate that in second half. Partially due to the defence of Real; and partially because of the erosion of energy along the play. Hence, the substution decision seems important here.

Overall:

It is just pity that we lost two players in injury in the second leg. Although I always respect Real Madrid as opponent, yet some of their plays were really nasty. Check out th statistics and I think it speaks out naturally. Anyway, two good match, some nice tension, and El clasico is just a thing you must see!

Statistics for the first leg

Statistics for the second leg

中文簡版:
身為一個巴薩迷, 這兩年來可以說有不少好比賽可以看. 每年在例行的聯賽兩場對陣之外, 國王盃的盃賽甚至可能的歐冠比賽都有機會對上皇馬. 去年一共打了五場El Clasico (一場國王盃, 兩場歐洲冠軍盃, 跟兩場西班牙甲級聯賽), 今年在國王盃八強對上皇馬, 至少就會有四場El Clasico 賽事.

第一腿: 在皇馬主場的比賽沒有打出特別的亮點, 或者是說, 巴薩在這幾年的打法已經讓人相當熟悉, 而身為巴薩迷也會把這一切的發生當成理所當然. "歐 又是場美妙的比賽"

雖然我們先被進球, 但是我們卻又再次的主導比賽. 控球比是很漂亮的數據, 而且被進球之後一點都不慌張, 反而皇馬自己把自己的場面玩小了, 撤退到自己的防守半徑去想要在主場拿下這一分. 但是我們透過不常見的角球開入禁區的頭球和快速的兩翼互換(Alves=>Messi=> Abidal), 硬生生要他們吞下一場敗仗.

就像Pique說的: "當我們用自己的方式踢球, 沒人阻止的了我們" (When we are ourselves, nobody can stop us/Quan som nosaltres no hi ha cap equip que ens pari/Cuando somos nosotros no hay ningún equipo que nos pare)

第二腿:
(謎之音: 皮少, 但如果你用你自己的方式踢球, 你會毀了我們)

打完上半場總積分4-1的領先讓人家可以鬆一口氣, 但是下半場卻又打的完全不像樣. 被追到了4-3的總積分差, 那種差點就翻船的感覺讓人有種"現在到底是誰佔優勢押?"的困惑感.

有人說下半場的控制場面不好是因為Iniesta太早下場了, 但我卻不覺得這是問題主因. 在上半場我們就沒有Iniesta, 而Pep在Iniesta下場後換上Pedro是個成功的決定, Pedro的跑動一直很具有侵略性, 他雖然沒有像Iniesta一樣優異的中場控球能力, 但是在中場球員還有Cesc的狀況下這並不是太大的問題. 但是在下半場的換人就顯得令人困惑. 在還有Mascherano在板凳上的情況下, 撤換Cesc替上的是Thiago並沒有讓中場控制增加, 而在先前爭球過程中有點受傷的Alexi應該要更早下場休息. 我賽後想想還有那種兩種換人應該對掉時間比較合理的想法(先拿Mascherano換Alexi, 晚點在拿Thiago換Cesc)
打完比賽之後我必須說Mourihno 是個優秀的教練, 至少在換人跟壓迫的決定上他做了身為皇馬教練應該做的事情. 雖然他有些招式實在難以讓人茍同,尤其是拿牌好像拿不用錢的(黃牌以後應該改名叫做皇牌好了).

Tax, Tax, Tax, Tax the Job creator and the wealthiest!

There are three articles I would like to share, with on-going European Debt crisis and the opening of US presidential candidacy competition heat up such topic: Where the tax should come from ? How we shall view tax in this global financial system?

Pumping oil, and pump in cash? Qatar and UAE as white knight into EU?

歐債各國準備跳樓大拍賣

UniCredit Gains Private Investor Supports
UniCredit, the biggest Italian bank in terms of asset size, in which a great proportion are Italian national bonds.They need fresh capital to prepare for possible write-offs on these assets. UAE now is going to be their sole biggest individual investors, after taking additional 1.5% via a new rights offering plan.

義大利最大的銀行準備新一輪的股權出售計畫, 而UAE的主權基金旗下的一家投資公司(Aabar Investment) 將會透過這個機會擴張他們的持有的股權比率, 從5%增加到6.5%, 並且成為UniCredit最大的股東

Greek prepare for State Asset Sales
Greek government also eyes on UAE's money, yet they might have other options at hands. An economic forum in Qatar may help them to draw other investors from gulf region. They are selling various of their national assets, including natural gas refinery, mining companies, lands on two major islands, a northern highway, 39 airports and 12 harbours.

希臘除了靠別人的紓困之外, 開始找尋其他的解套方式. 今年檯面上有的出售標的包括: 天然氣工廠, 採礦工廠, 幾座島嶼,  一條高速公路, 39個機場, 以及12個港口

Xmas and New Year have gone, yet the sales spirit remains!!

家鄉的民主(3): 從2012大選看出幾個台灣民主過程中演進與創新

選舉落幕, 沉澱了一下之後有幾個想法,

棒球板名言 "台灣的國球就是贏球", 套在選舉好像也行得通, 所以結果出來了, 雖然幾家歡樂幾家愁, 但是到底我們經歷了什麼? 似乎睡覺完醒來就忘掉了.

在我自己的家庭教育裡, 告訴我說要重視過程, 不要太重視結果, 但是事實上大家其實都直接忽略不太在乎過程, 所以變成了我寫這篇文章的動機

這篇文章, 或許可以提起大家關注一些再過程中容易被忽略的議題跟轉折,

The second game after winter break: FCB v. Betis (4-2)

There are a few things worth noting in this game, so this article is born.

1. This is the first time we yield goals to opponent at home match, and, ya, we yield 2 goals to them!!!

This result might be attributed to a rather unfamiliar starting formation (at least for me) in this match. We only place Puyol, Abidal and Mescherano on defending size. Though Alves coming in at 46 mins in second half and we yield a second goal at 52 mins, four players on defence side makes it more stable in second half. I believe we need a stable four defendants (including both wing defender) on the field. An winter or summer transfer for a fresh left-wing defender is most needed.
這場比賽被Betis進的兩球, 是今年賽季主場第一次失球, 還一次失兩球, 嘖嘖

防守線上只放三名球員看起來真的抖的有勝, 4-4-2的陣行就非得要有雙翼的防守才行. 找個便宜有成長潛力的替補左後應該是冬轉或者是夏轉的首要課題.

2. While defence may need reinforcement, attacking fire power has solid demostration, and versatility.
a few statistics worth noticing:

a. Overall: We are less than half way(17 games played/ 38games in total) in La Liga this year so far, and we already scored 51 goals. Last season we got 95 goals in whole season. A mark can be surpassed this year.
b. Xavi: He has marked 6 goals in this year, expecting a career hightest goal score per season. The career highlight is 7 goals in La Liga (2007-2008) season. With half season to go, it won't be hard to break the past record.
c. Alexis and Fabregas: proven to be successful transfer in last summer window. The former scoring 6 goals and the later made 9 goals so far. Not even mentioning the assistance coming from boarder perspectives that makes others harder to defend.

防守看起來很抖, 但是進攻看起來就好得太多. Xavi今年已經打進六球, 快要接近他過去單季最高進球紀錄(7球, 07-08球季)
今年的轉會算是相當成功, Cesc 愛家(加)的就感心轉會讓我們除了增加中場控制之外, 還大幅增強了攻擊火力可以說是可喜可賀. 就算是傷病衝擊了Pedro跟Villa看來對攻擊火力並沒有太大的減損. 事實上, 在攻擊面我們比過去還更強大, 打了不到球季的一半我們已經進了51顆球, 去年全年是進了95球.

3. Referee to be blamed? Iniesta's card looks dubious.

I probably should wrote this when last match was played. Espanyol did not deserved that equal game since a handball clearly overlooked. When this match, Iniesta should not get a card, and he did (get one).

MD has a special report on this issue. And Xavi said: " This year the errors of referees become the reality"

It is always a lame reason to blame referee for not winning games. Yet it always worth to strike such issue. Referee errors simply sucks, and even sucks more when they consistently benefit one team and against the other.

在上一場裁判被鬼遮眼的手球誤判就讓我很不爽了, 這場Iniesta又莫名的被發了張黃牌. Pep說他會上訴, Xavi也說今年誤判快要變成常態了, MD還特別做了個統計看一下說到底誤判發生在我們跟馬德里身上會長得怎樣.

(p.s.馬德里跟Mallorca那場比賽似乎也有個有利馬德里的penalty有被拿來討論)

雖然靠北裁判是個很遜的理由, 但是誤判會減少比賽的精采程度.
在FB上面看到一個有趣的巴薩球迷說:
"Rajoy一上台, 西甲的裁判也都準備好了"
(註: 西班牙前首相Zapatero曾經說過他是巴薩迷, 至於Rajoy跟PP一向是支持馬德里最高主義的)

4. Equal hurts:

So far we have 5 equal games already. The whole last season we only have 6. one at home(0-0) and all other 4 are away. We definitely need to work more on that.

太多平手啦, 去年一整年也才六場平局, 今年打到現在就已經五場了. 打客場比賽, 很有可能每個球隊都會用更凶悍的踢鏟與更鐵桶的陣型來面對, 但是連西甲球隊打客場都這麼辛苦的話, 在歐陸戰場上我們將會更辛苦. 踢客場比賽變成下半年主要的問題所在!

oh, one more thing. (and breaking news): Abidal's contract has been renewed!! We could have a good solid half season to go!

歐 在打這篇文章的同時, 媒體發布了Abidal續約的消息!!


Força Barça!

Maxwell may leave for PSG 麥克斯威爾咖啡上巴黎去

Maxwell can leave FCB in the following hours.
馬可斯威爾離開巴薩前往PSG

家鄉的民主(2): 從經濟學人民主指標(2011)來看台灣人認知的民主

民主到底是什麼鬼?

先來談談台灣的民主狀況

經濟學人民主指標 2011年, 我們第37名, 以得分的定義上, 我們叫做flawed democracy. (有缺陷的民主), 近四年我們得到的排名各為: 32 33 36 37 (2011年)
經濟學人每年對會對於各國民主狀況進行調查, 在五項不同的指標項,包括了60個不同的問題. 而每個問題可能是1, 0.5, 或者是0分, 這些領域分別是:
1.) Electoral process and pluralism 選舉的過程以及多元主義
2.) Functioning of government 政府的職權
3.) Political participation 政治參與
4.) Democratic political culture 民主政治的文化
5.) Civil liberties 公民自由

台灣的總評分數是 7.46,低於總評分數的三項是:政府效能(7.14), 政治參與(5.56), 與民主政治的文化(6.88)

等一下, 每次選舉的沸沸湯湯搖旗吶喊, 難道都是假的?