鼬園飼養：冠狀病毒在畜牧場

丹麥即將撲殺國內鼬園飼養的所有鼬群。這則WSJ的報導，提到了冠狀病毒在鼬體上產生變異，嗣後再轉傳給人類的狀態。

怎麼讀調查為基礎的資料：調查反映出的外國學生在荷蘭的狀況

荷蘭最近(Jun. 11, 2019)，發布了外國學生在荷蘭的調查結果，內容還挺有意思的。

針對外國學生的這種問券調查，是透過三個學生機構：ISO(Interstedelijk Studenten Overleg)，LSVb(Landelijke Studentenvakbond)，跟ESN(Erasmus Student Network Nederland)共同進行。2018年，是第二次進行這項調查，結果公布在ISO的網站

幾項基礎的數據，讓讀者對於"外國學生在荷蘭"的生活，會面對的挑戰，略有了解。筆者還想談談幾個自己對於 "調查基礎"的數據結果的一些想法。

史基浦機場擴建案與地方選舉：Lelystad機場延後開啟

在2016年，史基浦機場在討論潛在可能的擴建案時，引起了荷蘭社會的廣泛討論。我一開始知道這個議題，是在2015年冬天在一家麥當勞等餐時，翻閱報紙，看到史基浦周邊農夫對於機場擴建可能對於他們的影響，表達憂心。在2016年，我進一步在荷蘭朋友的臉書上，看到他們對於史基浦"航空城"的討論。

今年(2018)初，隨著地方選舉即將於三月展開，我意外的看到了幾個荷蘭在地政黨透過臉書，開始對於議題進行熱烈討論。其中包括："今日Lelystad，明日就是你"，這樣的聳動字眼。我稍微掃過內容後跟朋友詢問：到底這個議題是，是這個媒體本身偏頗的立場，或者是這件事情荷蘭政府真的搞砸了？

"通常這個媒體我是不看的，很多議題他們是亂扯沒錯。但在機場這件事上，他的評論還算到位。"

究竟，這是怎麼回事？

義大利公投：從金融業改革燒起的一把火

從下圖可以清楚看到：年初(2016)宣布要進行公投時，贊成方的民調聲勢並不差。至少，不該是現在：反對 v.s. 贊成為60% v.s. 40%的結果。而轉折點，似乎就在六月。

圖片來源：Wikipedia條目 https://goo.gl/Xw0dx4

大家不禁想問：夏天發生了甚麼事，造成這麼大的轉變？主要的翻轉，在銀行業的改革，以及義大利與歐盟的互動。

歐洲債務幽魂不散：聖靈銀行(Banco Espírito Santo)成為歐債風暴的新死靈？

94年的老招牌，是否隨著這次的危機瓦解？

新聞來源：

ESI Delays Repayment of Debt to Private-Bank Clients(WSJ, July 9th, 2014)
Markets Tumble on Portuguese Bank Woes (WSJ, July 10th, 2014)

歐洲建築業的春天？恐怕是另一個冬天

台灣的投資人，在政府有漲跌幅限制的"德政"下，可能不太熟悉這樣的狀況。而以理論上來說，這是一個有效率的市場給與管理當局錯誤投資的懲罰。

等等，再想想，是嗎？

烏克蘭：俄羅斯與歐盟的交叉路口

2010 Election 
Creator of the Image: Vasyl` Babych

影片中，烏克蘭女子陳述著烏克蘭對於自由的期盼跟想像，正在被國家機器使用暴力對待。走在東西歧異的十字路口，燃燒的基輔街頭，是過去幾天烏克蘭的首都的景象。

"我是烏克蘭人，我們要求自由，請你們跟我們站在一起"

國家暴力是如此可怕，我們千萬不可輕忽，更要加以譴責。然而，譴責暴力之外，還有些更細緻的問題？

LaComunity: Entrepreneurship is difficult times 西班牙旅遊住宿新選擇: 在一個挑戰的時代

陽光,海岸,西班牙! La Comunity!

老貝也檔不住的歐元強勢? 有影冇?

Even Berlusconi can't slow bull boosting EURO view by Bloomberg

"聽說歐元牛, 不怕我?" (設計對白)

以豬哥亮先生來解釋歐債跟財政風暴

今天晚上突然靈光一閃想到：要對於想要了解歐債風暴或者是財政危機始末，卻沒有經濟或者財務背景的市井小民，要如何解釋這樣的問題？歐債四國, 這些被稱為PIGS(Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain)的四隻小豬，跟紅遍台灣半邊天的豬哥亮，恰恰好有異曲同工之妙!!

European Debt Crisis: Spanish Theater 歐債危機西班牙劇場

I have two reasons to write this article: The first is that, regarding to my love to Catalunya, I feel I shall write something to clarify how situation is over there. The second is that I am so fed up with the questions constantly asked by my Taiwanese friends about European debt crisis. Their arguments are built up by local news, which  only delivered partial facts leading to wrong conclusion.

So, I decide to write this one. Same as other articles: This article is written both in English and Mandarin.

Bankia's problem is worse than we thought

From profit to loss, Bankia restated their financial result 
May 26, 2012 El País by Miguel Jiménes

從西班牙的"白象"機場來談債權的代理問題

西班牙的白象  Telegraph (Oct.05, 2011)  by Fiona Govan

白象是什麼? 白象在英文的裡是常用的一個比喻， 指的是對持有者來說有點價值， 但維持成本卻跟價值不成比率的東西。 此詞的來源有一說是來自泰國。泰國國王討厭某人的話，就送他一隻白象，讓他在維持這隻白象的過程中受到困擾，甚至因為經濟壓力而破產。

這種事情，換到投資界，或是運動界都很常見。花了大把銀子併購公司，卻又達不到合理的投資報酬，倉皇出售。早些年的BenQ Siemens案，對台灣人並不陌生；而運動界一票"薪水小倫"，更是讓球迷們津津樂道。

不論是出售或者是破產清算之後，受害最大的，多半是出借資金的人。在現代金融體系中常是銀行，或者是出資的納稅人。問起來，誰都不想要當那個"出錢"養白象的冤大頭；但偏偏這世界又有這麼多冤大頭。

那麼怎麼辨別白象問題？怎麼樣停止當冤大頭？私部門上與公部門上有很大的不同。

西班牙: 歐債風暴的新中心

Spanish Prime Minister Holds Bank talks with EU leaders

基本上歐盟危機進入了西班牙場,
重點從愛爾蘭, 葡萄牙跟希臘, 轉移到經濟規模比較大的西班牙(或許後續的義大利)

上一篇全英文的文章, "學界如何看待歐洲經濟危機" 其實對於西班牙的狀況還挺適用的. 所以藉由這個機會把西班牙的狀況寫出來.

雖然台灣的媒體把"歐豬五國"(葡萄牙, 愛爾蘭, 義大利, 希臘, 西班牙) 寫成一樣的狀況, 但基本上西班牙跟希臘, 是兩個相當不同問題的情境. 一來是赤字狀態不同, 一來是金融業的狀況也相當不同. 這也就是為什麼歐盟現在的問題重心會放在西班牙, 因為西班牙真的是這所為"twin crisis"的經典案例!

Twin Crisis: Disentangle National Debt markets and Banking System

Distengaling twin crisis by Prof. Thorsten Beck (2012, Jun)

Twin Crisis: Sovereign Debts and Banks

There are 3 essential questions in the speech：
1.) how are banks and sovereigns being locked up together in this crisis?

2.) how cross-country banking should be？How might it help to cope with the problem？

3.) Is there any possibility to design a new financial instrument, specifically, a repackaged debt instrument, to tackle the current crisis？

A brief visit to London

Last week, I had a trip to London-Oxford-Cambridge, several observations come to my attention.


(New Updates: Apr. 22, 2013)
Here comes an interesting News coverage of Pret a Manger on Bloomberg. For visitors to London, you might love it. ;)

ECB推出的錢要給誰？Let's go to Arena

透過歐洲央行的計劃，歐洲各大銀行可說是被灌滿資金，問題是：錢要往哪裡去？西班牙銀行跟大家說，鬥牛場上見！！

WSJ呈獻了這篇文章，告訴讀者，西班牙的銀行如何拯救垂危的鬥牛場。

Europe Crisis spread to core?

Euro zone manufacturing data: doesn't look good! After the financial crisis then we move focus to manufacturing sectors.

1.) From peripheral to core: Germany/France experience downturn in manufacturing sectors.

France has weaker position as their exposure to southern european countries are larger. (than Germany) However, as placed in a major leader and a lender position, Germany cannot be left intact.

I recall another day I had another conversation with frineds, saying that Germany can "purposely" keep the EU-crisis go on to be benefit from devalued EURO, which can boost their export sector. I doubted about it then. My argument is that the weak banking sector would rise the funding cost, not even mention the demand shrinkage from the other member states.

The latest data pretty much shows that is not likely for Germany benefit too much from the weak EURO. Everybody gets burned, just to different degrees.

2.) rounds of bailouts to continue?

Not likely. ECB has pumped enough money into banking systems. They project a likely rebound in the second quarter but no one can say for sure. Unlike Fed, which pretty much left inflation behind and focus on growth and revival of economy, ECB has more inflation-sensitive attitude. The 2.6% inflation rate is in their vigilance zone.

The show will be on in the second quarter~

Stress test, Banking industry in EU and US

It seems stress test is the hot topic for today.

I was a bit surprised when I browsed through Bloomberg news. I was expecting to see more report on "ratios." However, I see more dollar amount of loss for the banks under different stress. Such presentation of stress test recalls my memories of the other article I read few days ago. Then it is clear for me how and why they express the stress test in this way.

Here comes this Dealbook article first:

What Europe could have learned from the US bank bailout? by Peter Evais

There are two things to look at here.
1.) Capital ratio:
There are two ways you  might book up the capital ratio, you raise more fresh capital or just reduced the exposure of risk of your assets. For the later approach, the demand to improve "adequate" ratio might eventaully hurt the industries and companies, which would lose their credits from banks.

Europe and United States have quite different ideas on such ratio thing. As quoted from the article, William C. Dudley, the president of FED of NY, mentioned that they not only look at the ratio and also look at the absolute amounts.  In other words, the supervisory body wants banks to raise capital, and they cannot deliberately reduce their risk exposure.

Therefore, United States has another focus here. If these banks cannot make a cut on their risky exposure, how much loss they might have to face during the most adversary times?

2.) Possible loss under the worse scenario:

The stress test results are out from United States. The worse scenario is, the unemployment rate at 13%, 50% stock price drop and 21% of housing price drop. Then they assess the possible loss for each bank, and measure their possible capital ratio under such scenario.

Surprisingly, Citi is among those who failed the test. 15 out of 19 banks under the same test pass it.

Eventually, Banks should be the institutions which can absorb risks, especially during hte bad times. As I see, the various American legislation movement now are moving toward that direction. Banks cannot take too many risks, and  they should have enough reserve to go through the bad times, for themselves and for the public. I personally like the ideas behind this logic. Just do not know how exactly it would turn out to be alike for banking industries.

歐美各國這一陣子都在給自己的銀行進行壓力測試,主要目的是希望檢測這些主要銀行在經濟危機的狀態下是否有足夠的資本去承擔損失並且度過難關.

然而Peter Evais在Dealbook的一篇文章顯示了美國人跟歐洲人對於在銀行資本適足率處理上的差異. 當然, 這個比率是得看的, 但是美國人更在乎絕對的金額.

會這麼做很簡單, 因為增加資本適足率有兩種方式, 一種是充實自己的資本, 但另外一種方式就是把風險性資產降低, 換句台灣人常聽的話, 就是 "雨天收傘"

美國的各大銀行前一陣子才因為"雨天收傘太快"跟聯邦政府達成一個和解的協議(主要就是在房地產查封的過程過快而沒有進行應有的程序) 而美國政府也意識到, 如果銀行業不能夠成受衝擊而直接進行降低風險資產的動作的話, 那麼對於整體經濟的衝擊是不容小覷的.

因此本周發布的壓力測試消息主要都著重在銀行可能的損失金額, 以及他們現有的資本是不是可能承受這樣的損失. 我不確定下一部他們要做的是什麼, 但可以預期的是會更加限制銀行業可以承做的風險性資產範圍, 以及加速鼓勵銀行進行充實資本的計畫.

歐盟呢? 我不知道, 我只回憶起因為雨天收傘在倒掉了一家瑞士的石化廠. 雖然國際清算銀行也指出, 歐盟區的銀行的確有出售風險性資產跟減少貸放的狀況, 然而其他的借款者因此而進入這個市場所以對於產業的影響是較小的. 但是無法否認的是這個從去年十二月開始的新政策讓歐元區特定的借款成本增加, 對於整體歐元區的復甦事實上是非常不利的.



Federal States of EU?

Yesterday I just had such discussion with my neighbor on the opposite side of hall. It is quite interesting for some of our discussion point.

1.) Could that be a better rescue package if EU would have been a federal states?

His answer is YES. The coordination of EU member states are quite weak now and he considers such weakness is the major reason why it takes so long for EU to reach a deal for the crisis. It is never be easy to reach an agreement that please all.

2.) How commom European might think of the idea of federal states?

History is a devil here. The general public might not happy with such ideas when continental Europe was torn aparted more than once. Particularly, the recent two world war was central-staged in European theater. Such trauma is not easy to mend. Economically speaking, even Greece today is still paying something they owe Germany during the war. (which was forced  upon! the story is quite astonishing and I am not sure of the source of such claim) I still recall that when Austria is not happy of Liechtenstein entering into the EEA agreement due to some territorial problems that is not fully solved in the Empire days....

This question is a bit side-tracked when I talk of the Netherlands. He personally favors Republic over the Monarchy democracy. He believes that Dutch people should have more public consensus mentality if they have been given a Republic system. Actually, when Taiwan was once ruled by Dutch, the Netherlands was back then a Republic system. The continuous wars just brought down such system and other country would "install"(well, that is pretty much his perspective) a king on the Dutch people....

3.) Do EU has the capacity to become a federal states?

This is more my own question. I still recall the day when I were in Norway and had the competition law class. Professor just point out the ECJ do not really have the capacity to handle all the cases and duly ruling is extremely important for business world. If it even comes to more general issues, it could still take forever to solve if the current EU system do not have the capacity to deal with that.

He suggests that it should starts from the core body of EU, if the core can function it right, then the expansion on the power can be progressed in schedule. Just like what they have done before in economic integration.

We will see, this idea/topic is truely interesting now.