中國黃皮書(China Beige Book)：對經濟活動的草根性觀察

圖片來源: http://chinabeigebook.com/index.php

我們怎麼估計一個國家的經濟狀況？

最基本的，我們會看一個國家的經濟成長率。不過這年頭大家越來越聰明，多半了解經濟成長率中間有太多可以玩的把戲，因此會開始追尋一西其他的資料。比如：零售業銷貨成長，採購經理人指數，甚至，用水用電量。

中國因為幅員廣大，每個區域的經濟動能不盡相同。而統整起來的整體數據跟現實狀況很容易出現問題。因此，有一群人，就仿效了美國的做法，做出了這個有趣的玩意兒：China Beige Book




How to gauge the economic condition of a country?
Such questions remain challenging for lots of Economists, especially in case of China. Various reports has suggested that GDP growth number ALONE cannot be indicative for the overall economic condition. Some economists suggest to look at electricity consumption, considering China as "world factory". Others suggest to look at retail sales and service sector, considering China "in-transit" as a more domestic-consumption-oriented economy.

Now, Beige Book has its Chinese version.

近期Beige Book資料：
China Beige Book News Coverage
FED Beige Book, current release 

專業訪問還是街頭觀察?
在兩篇Bloomberg相隔一個月(7月跟8月)的報導，針對中國零售銷獲成長趨緩的狀況，做了兩篇報導。這兩則報導的看法不太一樣，然而，有趣的在於他們的資料採樣的方式：以"接觸人群"做為出發。一則透過專業人士訪談，另一則是走到街上看商品銷售的陳列。兩者，都試圖超越單純的統計數據。

This post was once written in August 2012. Back then, two Bloomberg News articles covered June retail sales growth in China. Though these two reports pointing toward different directions(one is more positive, yet the other is less optimistic), the main idea is pretty similar: A field trip around China. The difference? They ask different people.

Beige Book是啥？Beige Book是美國聯準會每年會進行8次的訪談報告。訪談對象為企業人士、經濟學家及其他市場人士。訪談與報告內容，以聯準會的分區做為基準。這份報告經濟現況以及未來展望做成報告。這項訪談，是從1970年開始，不過到了1985年被Dow Jones的記者Paul Cox要求揭露，才比較廣為周知。說起來，這本書昭告是人的歷史近30年的事。

Beige Book is the nickname for "Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District". It gathers anecdotal information from professionals: Business contacts, Economist, or other market experts, and covers all 12 FED districts. FED started doing this survey from 1970, yet reporters did not go after it until 1985. Paul Cox, once Dow Jones reporter, is the first one requested to see the book. Now, such report (and archive) is accessible via FED's website.

中國Beige Book
在中國，官方並沒有主動揭示這樣的調查結果，雖然在"雙政記" (TED演說)中，李世默先生提到中國政府的確進行一系列不同的民意調查，做為政策評估依據。

因此，兩位外國人開始這樣的活動：Leland Miller的背景與中國息息相關，加上Craig Charney的問卷調查專長，組成的 CBB International ：嘗試要透過與Beige Book類似的方式，對中國的經濟展望做出更細緻的觀察。就像聯準會有12個分區，他們把中國分為八個區域。

In China, there is no "official" Beige Book, or say, at least not for general public. Although Mr. Eric X. Li does imply Chinese government agencies conduct various surveys  in policy decision-making process (See: TED speech "A Tale of Two Political Systems"), we are not sure whether there is "The Book."

However, we do have a private version. CBB International  started  publishing the "China Beige Book" from the first quarter of 2012. Two founders, Leland Miller and Craig Charney, have strong backgrounds in China studies and survey in emerging markets. They aim at building a comprehensive report about China's economy activities. Adapted FED methodology, such report includes interviews with executives and bankers, gathering so-called "anecdotal information."

那兩則新聞報導了甚麼？
當時的情況是這樣的：中國在2012年6月零售業銷售YoY成長13.7%，是令人有點失望的結果。因此出了這兩則報導。而我們介紹了Beige Book，就來看看CBB怎麼說。

Some background information should be provided. At that time, China just issued retail sales statistics, with a disappointing 13.7% YoY growth. Bloomberg News have two follow-up coverage. One is based on CBB report; the other with journalist visiting the street.

第一則：
Bloomberg(July 5, 2012)China Beige Book: Unseen pickups? 

透過這項CBB的調查: 他們得出一個相對大膽的結論
中國經濟正在降速, 但是我們看到了底部支撐的力道
1. 80%的零售業者認為未來六個月的銷貨會成長
2. 銀行業認為未來放款會更容易，46%的公司有打算要貸款。
3. 消費趨緩，但不是人們想像的這麼糟

CBB, based on the interviews, suggested:  

1. 4 out of 5 (80%) of retailer see bigger sales in 6 month

2. Banking sector and companies consider better loan availability , with 46% of interviewed companies intent to borrowing. 

3. Consumption is slowing down, yet not as bad as people perceived.

第二則：
Bloomberg(Aug 2, 2012) Economic Slowdown and discounts! 

這則報導隱含了一個比較間接的邏輯：面對疲軟的消費市場，廠商必須祭出折扣來吸引大眾。而折扣多半會持續一段期間：消費潛力低=>折扣大規模推出=>未來消費狀況(？)

報導中點出了許多中國在地的品牌：不管是國際品牌或是在地通路。(*詳見附註)

The second article was accompanied with a video(No longer available on Bloomberg.com): Journalist walking down the street, camera taking various scene of promotion events, they highlighted the on-going promotion events.

What does this mean? Consumers has changed, and such changes were attributed to increasing economic uncertainty. To react, retailers had to bring up various campaigns with discount. In this coverage, it listed various brand names across industries, including international and local ones.

報導中提到，消費者看緊自己的荷包時的可能性有兩種：
1.) 他們單純變得聰明了
2.) 因為未來的所得不確定性提高了, 他們企圖保有自己的現金來保障自己未來的消費能力

不論是上述可能的哪一種，這則報導暗示了中國成長的不確定性：要透過促進內需來增近經濟成長有其難度。而且，公司也不見得從銷貨的增加來獲利：大規模的折扣代表著公司得降低自己的毛利率/淨利率。

Though the tone inclined more on economic uncertainty story(the first point), it did offer another view point: 

1.)  Consumers are cautious of their future income, the uncertainty of their income grows higher. Therefore, they naturally watch their purse more carefully.

2.) Consumers are simply smarter and they care of their spending. (everyone would do the same)

Either case, private consumption growth is not warranted, and companies may not benefit from such growth since they would need to cut deeper into their profit margins to stimulate consumers.

Conclusion: 
當初我寫下這篇文章的時候，立即的反應是對於"主觀意見"的懷疑。問卷式的資料多半採取相對式，抽像感受的訪問內容。比如 "溫和的成長"這詞，每個受訪人對於"溫和"的感受並不會相同。此外，有回函的意見才會被包含到報告中。我們其實不確定有多少人回復了這樣的報告，而這樣意見是否有足夠的代表性？

有些問卷方法可以改善這樣的狀況：比如增加問卷範圍(像CBB問了2,000個專業人士)，橫跨不同的產業別，或給予一些字詞適當的定義範圍等。CBB International 包含了這方面的專業人士，他們的做法對未來應有一定的指標性意義。

Beige-book approach could reveal some information, yet it is still open for alternative interpretation. For example, even for professionals, they might have very different number in mind if speaking of "moderate" growth. Furthermore, data is collected and analyzed from "the respondents", which means only do opinions from those who responded matters. These "views" are subjective, and likely to be biased. Survey methodology is designed to overcome such challenges. Increasing sample size, broadening scope over industries, or offer definition guidance might help to alleviate such problem. CBB International engages people with such expertise, thus their report should offer some insights.

Bloomberg第二則報導的模式，算是更貼近一般群眾。如果他們觀察的通路所包含的市占率夠大，那麼折扣戰的資訊就有一定的代表性。針對："誰，進行了多長期間，折扣多少" 這樣來做資訊蒐集，指標性可以更強，且明確的知道資料可以適用的範圍有多大。然而，這樣的報導很有趣，卻沒有周期性的後續報導。

The method used in the second report is even "closer" to the public. These discount information is what consumers see everyday. If we could clearly identify

"Who makes (how deep)  the promotion for (how long the period)" 

this information is very indicative in certain time period, especially when the top retailers with significant market shares are included. However, such reports are not made periodically and systematically. 

撰寫這篇文章的初衷很簡單：13.7%的成長到底是高還是低？好事還是壞事？這些數字，不管是對於一般民眾，或者是對於使用數據的專業人士，不見得提供一項指標。而這兩種不同的蒐集數據以及呈獻方式，或許能夠給予資訊使用者更直觀，對於未來經濟前景更具體的"感受"。

The purpose of this blog post is simple: "Is 13.7% growth good or bad?" (ya..standard answer is "depends") Sometimes number is just number, we are not sure what it means. These two news articles provides us some alternative perspectives on economic outlooks, and it might help us to shape up our intuition. Next time, before reading economic data, you might wanna try FED Beige book first.

*Note: Brands covered in the August 2ed, 2012 news
國際品牌：McDonald/Nike

家用電器Household Electronics:
蘇寧 Suning Appliance
國美電器 Gome Electrical Appliance

商場開發與外國品牌代理 Shopping Center Development and Brands:
香港I.T.Ltd
金鷹商貿集團 Golden Eagle Retail Group

鞋業 Shoes:
達芙妮 Daphne International Holdings

家用商品 (如洗髮精等) Home cares:
霸王國際集團 BaWang International Group**中國2012/13年，零售業銷售成長率(YoY變化)
這裡我順便放上了過去的歷史資料：中國的零售業成長在7/8兩月並沒有好轉，不過到了9月後持續攀高。

如果以"未來六個月"銷貨會走揚這點來看，CBB做的報告並沒有錯。然而，銷售金額的增加是否是因為折扣而來，進而侵蝕了場商的獲利？從這張圖上就不得而知了。