European Debt Crisis: Spanish Theater 歐債危機西班牙劇場

I have two reasons to write this article: The first is that, regarding to my love to Catalunya, I feel I shall write something to clarify how situation is over there. The second is that I am so fed up with the questions constantly asked by my Taiwanese friends about European debt crisis. Their arguments are built up by local news, which  only delivered partial facts leading to wrong conclusion.

So, I decide to write this one. Same as other articles: This article is written both in English and Mandarin.


When it comes to Macroeconomics and Catalunya, the first person I thought of is Prof. Xavier Sala-i-Martin. Voila, he indeed wrote an article few days later when the news came into media: The Catalan Bailout

I would like to do some a short summary of his article:

1. Government officials usually have no idea where the tax money comes from, how it increases and decreases, and, most important of all, when they shall save up(for the public)
I am not sure if he constantly argue this, yet it is not the first time I see his article proposing the idea that the government spending should be "counter-cyclical." In plain words, it means that government should save up when economic condition is good and spend more when the condition is bad. This idea does not require a high economics education to understand. I believe most household, at least in the environment I grow up, could understand and implement this idea.

I am afraid that only few, if not none, government officials listen to this argument.

Simply put, here presents a agency theory problem. When the budget is controlled in hands of the powerful with great discretion, hardly would any of them really take a further thought about the consequence of spending some,if not most, of the funds for personal interests. The governments, in many occasions, pursue to interests that are very different from the public, even though they are supposed to "for the people" (In Taiwan we have a mocking words saying they are "for the pocket", not "for the people")

Xavier listed a few culprit of extravagant spending, I hope my Catalan friends could take a closer look of these "politicians"

2. Along with austerity plans, taxation structure and tax revenue distribution shall earn equal attentions
In the second part of the article, Xavier mentioned something that is very crucial for the difference among autonomous states in Spain. This perspective points out a more acute problem for all Europeans to be concerned with. How we allocate the funds and how to encourage countries and regions to make responsible fiscal policies?

Although Catalunya has soaring debt, both in absolute level and relative level(to GDP), they are still comparatively better off, both in national level (21% debt to GDP ratio compared to overall 68% in Spain), and European level. (I do not even want to mention those troubling countries.)

The only thing matters is, the central government up-holding 40% of their tax revenue and distribute to other parts of Spain. It means that, even if the Catalan government would have done responsible budgeting and execution of their funds, they might still fall short in cash to savior themselves from economic crisis. If I am told that such thing is not only a Catalunya-Spain case but a pan-European regional-central government issues, I won't be surprised.

 Such thing can be only changed by legislation or, a more daring move of financial independence. And, alas, we would enter into endless political debate and arguments.

其實我寫這篇文章得主要原因是在台灣媒體上面第一次看到"加泰隆尼亞"這個字詞出現, 居然是篇這麼神奇的文章, 我去查了一下原文, 在外媒上的確有這篇文章沒錯. 然而, 中央社報導中用的字詞是"乞求"過度強烈不說, 也沒有敘明加泰隆尼亞向西班牙中央政府要求金援的原因, 更沒有說出, 雖然加泰隆尼亞是西班牙負債最多的自治區, 同時也是西班牙GDP數一數二高地區的事實.

一般我們在討論一個國家/地區的時候, 都會談到負債/GDP比, 目前加泰隆尼亞這個的負債雖然驚人, 但負債GDP比卻是相當低(21%), 主要是該地區創造GDP的能量依舊高於大部分其他西班牙的區域. 台灣這個數字是多少? 很多人會有不同的記算方式, 依照這篇文章的設算, 會落在35.28%~151%之間. 先不論加泰隆尼亞地區是否也有台灣神奇會依照設算方式不同造成的不一樣的狀態, 但至少來說, 我們的低標是高過他人目前的低標的.

而加泰隆尼亞會需要這筆金援, 可以參考這篇NYtimes的文章(我想, 中央社原始的報導來自於這篇文). 標題開宗明義寫出, 因為加泰隆尼亞無法在公開債市中舉借資金, 所以必須要透過跟中央政府請款的方式來維持財政支出.

提到加泰隆尼亞問題, 通常我會引用哥倫比亞大學教授 Xavier Sala-i-Martin 部落格上的文章, 此新聞一出不久後, 不意外的, Prof. Sala-i-Martin沒多久之後就撰寫了一篇相關的文章. 文章中提到, 就算是Telefonica(西班牙電信)這樣現金流量穩健, 而且現金流有滿大一部分都來自於西班牙境外營運所得的公司, 都因為背負了"西班牙"公司的名號, 逐漸喪失了在金融市場中籌措資金的能力. 更遑論加泰隆尼亞這個, 雖然在負債比率來說相對優異的單一自治區.

除此之外, 文章之中有兩個重點, 是值得身為台灣人的我們注意的.

1. 政府財政計畫應該得要反景氣循環(countercyclical)的:
一般來說, 政府會在景氣好的時候稅收多一些, 景氣差的時候稅收少一些. 所以就開支來講, 就應該要反著經濟循環操作. 也就是把景氣好同時多收的稅收存起來, 等到景氣不好, 私部門開支萎縮的同時再把財政盈餘花掉, 促進經濟活動.

這個道理我想對於很多家戶並不陌生, 會在收入好的時候多存點錢, 不管是做投資或者是單純儲蓄都好, 家戶經濟狀況不佳的時後再把儲蓄拿來支應.

但對於大部分的政府官員或許不這麼認為: 多收的稅收可以說是他們的金庫, 錢就自然而然花在很"特別"的地方. 或許是私人享受(裝潢辦公室), 或許是拉攏政治關係(選舉或者是文宣造勢), 或者是"利益"特定人士(外包一些很"豪華"的標案.

這些事情在西班牙其他自治區一樣發生, 我也在另外一篇"白象機場"的文章, 引述英國衛報的報導點出相關的問題, 這些我就不再多提了.

特別想提的其實是另外一點:
2. 財政收支劃分的議題
這是西班牙幾個比較富裕的自治區與中央政府一直存在的矛盾: 到底自治區的稅收要有多少的比率留在那個自治區? Prof. Sala-i-Martin的文章指出: 西班牙中央政府拿走了40%加泰隆尼亞的稅收, 對比財政更加自主的巴斯克地區, 加泰隆尼亞目前面對的經濟問題相對嚴重, 部分可以歸因於財政並沒有完全獨立自主.

這個問題, 我相信在歐洲每個中央政府與地方政府之間同時存在, 畢竟經濟活動的發展在一個區域之內並不是平均的. 歐債問題已經讓中央政府跟中央政府之間財政如何統一化, 紀律化的問題浮上檯面. 但更深一層其實也存在於中央政府與地方政府之間的問題. 雖然藉由歐債的狀況來解決相關的議題, 又是曠日廢時無止境的政治談判. 然而這個問題凸顯出了現時歐洲財政紀律核心的重點: 錢, 不是沒有; 但是錢, 要怎麼分配?? 而分配狀態處理的好壞與否, 影響到歐洲整合是否能夠進一步推展.

前一陣子, 台南市賴清德市長才提出呼籲中央政府儘速通過財政三法, 與西班牙這個新聞來的時間點可以說是恰好相近. 台灣中央政府跟地方政府的稅收與分配也一直存在著爭議, 許多稅收收歸國稅在統籌畫分後, 中央政府得到了許多, 不管在政治上或者在財政上的權力. 這樣的權力是否被妥適的使用? 才是真正在債務危機背後應該花更多時間去梳理的!

我記得在過去台灣的學生時代曾經參與一場邀請現任新北市長朱立倫的演說, 時任桃園縣長. 以會計出身背景的他, 提到了自己對於財政規劃的看法. 無法引述其確切的言論, 但大意在於台灣的地方稅制分配體制無法鼓勵地方縣市長去"創稅": 畢竟不管怎們樣稅得要上繳中央, 而中央對於地方的行政又有相當大的裁量權力. 這樣對地方縣市首長來說很有限制. 而在這則新聞中, 唯有台中跟新北兩市並沒有就相關議題有相對意見: 是記者疏忽, 或者是這兩市選擇沉默? 令人玩味.

說實在, 很多朋友問了我關於歐洲的問題, 除了談到歐債垮台這種站在局外看戲的心態, 其實在歐洲正在發生的事情是身為台灣人的我們很好的借鏡! 最後想說, 台灣媒體, 加油好嗎?