老貝也檔不住的歐元強勢? 有影冇?

Even Berlusconi can't slow bull boosting EURO view by Bloomberg

"聽說歐元牛, 不怕我?" (設計對白)

貶值: 真的有貨幣戰爭?

這篇是我這些年來對於總經的粗淺認知, 我嘗試推演傳說中的貨幣戰爭根本不存在, 試圖用另外一個角度來告訴大家現在的相競貶值到底在玩些什麼花樣?

首先, 我想先回顧一下我之前寫的一篇文章, 到底貨幣是什麼? 我們持有cash的目的是什麼?
The value of (holding) cash 其中有兩個很重要的概念:

1. 現金還是一種政府擔保發行的一種資產, 以政府的概念來看就是一種超短期債,以個人的角度來看就是持有某種短期政府債券. 跟其他債券一樣,他也是一種金融資產.

2. 一個國家的國民: 你, 會持有這個大家普遍信任的債券去交易: 不論是交易你想取得的財貨或勞務, 或者是把這個債券換成其他的金融資產,比如你去投資股票或者其他債券etc.

3. (本文新加入這點) 別人為什麼會願意收下你的這個金融資產,讓你換取實體財貨或者是勞務? 因為他相信這張紙具有"購買力" :換句話說: 持有這張金融資產可以讓他在往後的短時間內還是可以兌換到相應的產品,他並不用承擔任何短期的損失.

ok, 那印鈔票到底會發生什麼事情,貶值會發生什麼樣的事情?

以豬哥亮先生來解釋歐債跟財政風暴

今天晚上突然靈光一閃想到：要對於想要了解歐債風暴或者是財政危機始末，卻沒有經濟或者財務背景的市井小民，要如何解釋這樣的問題？歐債四國, 這些被稱為PIGS(Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain)的四隻小豬，跟紅遍台灣半邊天的豬哥亮，恰恰好有異曲同工之妙!!

European Debt Crisis: Spanish Theater 歐債危機西班牙劇場

I have two reasons to write this article: The first is that, regarding to my love to Catalunya, I feel I shall write something to clarify how situation is over there. The second is that I am so fed up with the questions constantly asked by my Taiwanese friends about European debt crisis. Their arguments are built up by local news, which  only delivered partial facts leading to wrong conclusion.

So, I decide to write this one. Same as other articles: This article is written both in English and Mandarin.

從西班牙的"白象"機場來談債權的代理問題

西班牙的白象  Telegraph (Oct.05, 2011)  by Fiona Govan

白象是什麼? 白象在英文的裡是常用的一個比喻， 指的是對持有者來說有點價值， 但維持成本卻跟價值不成比率的東西。 此詞的來源有一說是來自泰國。泰國國王討厭某人的話，就送他一隻白象，讓他在維持這隻白象的過程中受到困擾，甚至因為經濟壓力而破產。

這種事情，換到投資界，或是運動界都很常見。花了大把銀子併購公司，卻又達不到合理的投資報酬，倉皇出售。早些年的BenQ Siemens案，對台灣人並不陌生；而運動界一票"薪水小倫"，更是讓球迷們津津樂道。

不論是出售或者是破產清算之後，受害最大的，多半是出借資金的人。在現代金融體系中常是銀行，或者是出資的納稅人。問起來，誰都不想要當那個"出錢"養白象的冤大頭；但偏偏這世界又有這麼多冤大頭。

那麼怎麼辨別白象問題？怎麼樣停止當冤大頭？私部門上與公部門上有很大的不同。

西班牙: 歐債風暴的新中心

Spanish Prime Minister Holds Bank talks with EU leaders

基本上歐盟危機進入了西班牙場,
重點從愛爾蘭, 葡萄牙跟希臘, 轉移到經濟規模比較大的西班牙(或許後續的義大利)

上一篇全英文的文章, "學界如何看待歐洲經濟危機" 其實對於西班牙的狀況還挺適用的. 所以藉由這個機會把西班牙的狀況寫出來.

雖然台灣的媒體把"歐豬五國"(葡萄牙, 愛爾蘭, 義大利, 希臘, 西班牙) 寫成一樣的狀況, 但基本上西班牙跟希臘, 是兩個相當不同問題的情境. 一來是赤字狀態不同, 一來是金融業的狀況也相當不同. 這也就是為什麼歐盟現在的問題重心會放在西班牙, 因為西班牙真的是這所為"twin crisis"的經典案例!

Twin Crisis: Disentangle National Debt markets and Banking System

Distengaling twin crisis by Prof. Thorsten Beck (2012, Jun)

Twin Crisis: Sovereign Debts and Banks

There are 3 essential questions in the speech：
1.) how are banks and sovereigns being locked up together in this crisis?

2.) how cross-country banking should be？How might it help to cope with the problem？

3.) Is there any possibility to design a new financial instrument, specifically, a repackaged debt instrument, to tackle the current crisis？

西班牙在歐債風暴

增訂: Debt/GDP % in EURO zone: NY times interactive
(相較於西班牙, 德法一直有較高的Debt/GDP ratio)

我特別會提到西班牙是因為對於這個國家比較熟悉, 此外對於台灣媒體把整體歐洲陷入債信困境的國家都打成一樣的類型感到莫名其妙. 歐洲很大, 每個國家都有不一樣的特色. 如果你放棄進一步看到每個國家差異的狀況, 大概就會跟某知名女性節目主持人一樣: 做了一個某國的專題之後那個國家就馬上陷入危機(i.e. 愛爾蘭)

Austerity, a re-visit.

There are two articles come into my mind today, while Greece (and other countries) v. trioka (i.e EC, ECB, and IMF)

Austerity v. Europe by Javier Solana
Does Austerity promote economic growth? by Robert Schiller

Debt should not be accumulated to a sky-racketing level, that is for sure. Not every country in the world enjoy the privilege of such borrowing power as U.S. However, austerity promoted so hard recently should not be the single solution as well.

In article of Javier Solana, he mentioned of the Great Depression period, while austerity arguably became the major killer of economy. In Schiller's article, he cited a early Dutch-born English philosopher's poem, suggesting the possible further shrinkage of consumption and employment in EURO-zone.

Yet, the next questions would be, what's the alternative?

1. Austerity + QE..that is what they are doing now, yet as I point out in another article, QE may not help the flow of money into the manufacturing sector, but only to finance and government sectors. (and who knows how these government sectors gotta spend???)

2. Austerity + Fiscal policy regulation (by a particular commission in EU structure): This is something under discussion. Should they create a commission "especially" for Greece? or if they apply to all member states, will France fall under the next prey?

3. No Austerity but structural reform: including a board-based pension cut, job stimulus package and tax-incentives for entrepreneurship: which makes more new firms and create more jobs?
4. ??????

By the way, as Javier Solana happens to serve in PSOE government as a Foreign Minister, he might have more sympathy with what PSOE did before. Yet, honestly, in terms of budget balance, PSOE actually did a great job. The Spanish government deficit was turn positive under PSOE hands, and then remained so until 2007, when they tried to use stimulus to be against economic recession.

Oh, a very interesting paper by Brender and Brazen comes to my notice. (They are from bank of Israel and U Maryland, respectively). They study  the expansionary policy (i.e. huge government spending project) and re-election probability. It does not help, or even lower, the probability of incumbent to be reelected. Sorry, PSOE, you should learn this earlier.

Tax, unequally.

The problem is not only between the rich and the poor, but the overall system.

I just wrote an article about tax few days ago, arguing that,  from academia perspectives, there is a good reason to set tax rate high for the rich. However, it looks quite different in reality.

Mr. James Ross, as mentioned in this article, paid 102% of his taxable income to governments of all sort. (if you consider local, state, federal government separately) Well, such percentage could be quite different if you talks of adjusted gross income, he paid around 20% tax. Compared to some other professions, he still pays relative less in respect to the adjusted gross income. (A professor in the article paying 26%, an architect couple pay some 31%, an author/journalist paying 26%, and a TV show host pay almost 50%!)

how Romney's tax rate is alike, comparing to other high-income individuals?

Honestly, reading this article just helps us to realize how complex it could be to design a tax system. It is not simple as raise the tax rate a bit here and reduce a bit there. It needs some overall structural  overhauls.
It is not even a rich-poor game, it is a fair and unfair game. Of course, among the rich, there are still a huge discrepancy out there!

So, we should not hate the rich, better hate the system! (and someone should fire their accountant!)

前一陣子我才寫了一篇文章, 談到課稅得公平性, 最近因為共和黨總統參選人Romney的稅單被公布了, 稅率的議題在美國又有得吵了.

這位羅斯先生所支付的稅款, 如果以他的應稅所得來計算的話, 支付了102%的稅率. 也就是說, 他所繳交的稅款比他的可應稅所得還要高. 但如果以他的總所得來看的話, 他也大概付了20%的稅(well, 還是比Romney的少, ooops), 但是他也真的把他很大一部分的所得捐出去了, 所以用102%的稅來評斷他的狀況(也就是他還是得從他的存款中提錢出來繳稅), 也不誇張.

這篇文章也列舉了幾個社會上的名人/專業人士的稅單狀況, 試圖反映的狀況是: 創造雇用的人並沒有從創造雇用的過程中獲利, 而如果你的所得中很大的比率是"薪資", 那麼你很有可能是那個倒大楣的人, 就算你在怎麼有錢也需要上繳國庫!!

這不僅僅是一場富人窮人的戰爭, 而是如何修改體系的戰爭

Tax, Tax, Tax, Tax the Job creator and the wealthiest!

There are three articles I would like to share, with on-going European Debt crisis and the opening of US presidential candidacy competition heat up such topic: Where the tax should come from ? How we shall view tax in this global financial system?

Pumping oil, and pump in cash? Qatar and UAE as white knight into EU?

歐債各國準備跳樓大拍賣

UniCredit Gains Private Investor Supports
UniCredit, the biggest Italian bank in terms of asset size, in which a great proportion are Italian national bonds.They need fresh capital to prepare for possible write-offs on these assets. UAE now is going to be their sole biggest individual investors, after taking additional 1.5% via a new rights offering plan.

義大利最大的銀行準備新一輪的股權出售計畫, 而UAE的主權基金旗下的一家投資公司(Aabar Investment) 將會透過這個機會擴張他們的持有的股權比率, 從5%增加到6.5%, 並且成為UniCredit最大的股東

Greek prepare for State Asset Sales
Greek government also eyes on UAE's money, yet they might have other options at hands. An economic forum in Qatar may help them to draw other investors from gulf region. They are selling various of their national assets, including natural gas refinery, mining companies, lands on two major islands, a northern highway, 39 airports and 12 harbours.

希臘除了靠別人的紓困之外, 開始找尋其他的解套方式. 今年檯面上有的出售標的包括: 天然氣工廠, 採礦工廠, 幾座島嶼,  一條高速公路, 39個機場, 以及12個港口

Xmas and New Year have gone, yet the sales spirit remains!!

German 10-year Bond auction 2012 年德國10年債券標售

Before having a response on this: Let's see what happened on last bond auction.
Insufficient german bond auction: ominous Nov. 23, 2011; 35% of the target does not get any bidding.
German got 103% of bidding on this bond sale Jan 4th, 2012

What's the major difference here in the picture?
6 Central Banks Act to Buy Time in Europe Crisis Nov. 30, 2011.

The hunch feeling is, after that last German bond bidding, the major players in the international financial markets know something gone very wrong. The liquidity is so freezing up that banks do not really have any extra cash to finance the need of national borrowings in EU market. Even if they do, they would rather save their own ass by rolling their bond portfolio on the existing assets. (i.e. Italian banks will rollover on Italian bonds, Spanish banks will roll on Spanish bonds.)

The financially-solid guys (I am not sure whether I shall use the plural form here) cannot get their books refinanced.

So, let the gate open.

They are two ways of the bond market going on now. For those with worse credit rating, players (insurance company, banks, etc.) can go to the ECB window to borrow (in 3 year term) to bid on those bonds on a considerable rate. These countries will have the liquidity to be alive, for going through all "reform" progress. For those better rating countries, international central bankers will help them (again, I am not sure whether a plural form is correct here.) to find reasonable finance, by holding EU as part of reserve on their books and help to bid on their bonds.

2012 seems to have a O.K. starts. The next route? I believe they would strike a deal with Greece, Portugal and Ireland on re-financing( haircut in different degree), and push Spain and Italy to have a good solid financial plan.(well, together with the 3 mentioned before as well)

We will see.

How new tax policy may affect on club competitiveness: An Eric Abidal Case

Renew the contract? Settle the tax issue first!!
Abidal 要續約? 先看政府的稅率政策在說

Italian Job: Calling for more fund

Itay seeks bigger fund....After tough debt sales

Yes, Xmas it is; yes, New Year is approaching, yet we do not see much will change.

Italian 10 year bond sell at 6.98%, not really far from their record high of 7.56% one month ago.
I will say it s more like indication than a problem for this on-going crisis. As mentioned before, ECB would like to drive down the rate with the massive funding into the national banking sectors, encouraging them to purchase their national bond. Yet, longer maturity bonds are out of the range of this fire power. This auction rate still tell these national government:

義大利今天的公債標售並沒有想像中好的利率: 跟昨天的新聞不同的是: 昨天標售的是較短年期的債券;而今天標售的是十年期債券.

"Hey, uncertainty is high and we still ask for decent return to justify our bid on such risks"
What uncertainty we talks about now?
Whether technocrats can contruct a sensible national budget, with revision of some key domestic policies: such as tax system and pension plans?
Whether EU is going to achieve a concensus on fiscal policies and fiscal union, and going to form a new treaty on that?

市場仍然觀望, 這些不確定性: 包括未來義大利政府是否能夠成功的扭轉國家政策, 以及歐盟當局是否將財政紀律明文化

In this festiva mood, the true difficulty of European debt crisis just about to start, not even close to end.
在節慶的氣氛中, 歐債真正的處置真正開始, 離結束還有一段遙遠的距離.

EU Debt Crisis Resolution: Pieces of the Picture

Two Leading News by the end of 2011
2011年, 兩個主要的公債消息: 西班牙公債跟義大利公債拍賣各宣布了些好消息

Spanish Bond Auction Result,  and the Weighted-Average Rate now
Italian Borrowing Cost decline

We can gradually see the ECB and EU operation from these information:
As for ECB: ECB injected the liquidity to banks, implicitly encourage the banks bidding on national debts, to drive down the borrowing cost, for these governments to stir through this turbulence.

As for EU: the government side, these funding does not come without a cost, they have to implement a series of austerity program. "Austerity" means: a boarder cut of government budget, a smaller cheques(public transfer) for their citizens, a higher retirement age, and limited social security package. These may gradually lead to a greater fiscal union within EU structure. New treaty? New power? these are still under discussion.

我們可以從兩個方向簡單來的看目前歐洲的解決方案:
歐洲央行給了歐洲各國的銀行短期(三年)的低利貸款,這些低利貸款直接放貸給各國銀行, 然後各國銀行可以藉由歐洲各國的公債標售市場, 投入更多的金額到各國公債中, 降低各國公債借款利率.

但各國畢竟還是得自己建立起償債能力, 這個部分就得透過歐盟最近的協商來進行. 主要的問題就在於財政同盟是否可以順利推行: 也就是說, 歐盟成立當時的各國財政計畫將會用更嚴謹的方式來執行: 這是場政治角力, 也是整個計畫最困難的部分.

The first part seems working so far, at least from recent auction news: market responded positively on these package; therefore,  these indebted governments can finance themselves with lower cost, buying themselves more time to achieve the fiscal packages they need to push through via those technocrats.

Yet, now it is the key for the second part: will politics play nice and neat to a boarder consensus on fiscal policies and amend the treaties(or signing up new ones) accordingly.

The tough part has yet come, the real battles are in 2012, for all we know "nice and neat" ain't the word for politics.

目前第一部分是可行的, 至少以最近公債標售的狀況來講, 義大利西班牙兩國都可以稍微喘口氣, 但第二部分就不知道是否真的行得通了: 至少在聖誕節前看起來, 歐盟各國還有很多路要走.
歐洲是不是德國說了算? 這篇從前法國外交官筆下的描述就可以知道歐盟的政治協商還有多遠要走.


Let's pull off from Europe and revisit an American view presented by Prof. Cochrane:
There are two points I agree most and believe should be emphasized:

1.) Fiscal Union is not really necessary:
Prof. Cochrane brought out some analogue, comparing states in United States and member states in European Union. We all know across different States in US, the economic development varies. A state government should have some autonomy over their fiscal policies.

But, wait, then how can we control these countries that they do not spend too much, and digging holes for themselves again?

2.) Naitonal debt should be treated as corporate debt:
Here, a key word is "market"
If investors decide to invest into a riskier corporate bond, then they know they bear the risk of default.
They ask for higher rate, and the price of bond would reflect the riskiness of such security.
Why not national debt should be treated the same?

because national debt default would trigger the domino effect, and the linkage, as I mentioned in previous article, is through banking channels.

So, Prof. Cochrane suggest decoupling is necessary, and consider the current intervention will only push the risk even higher. These Xmas picture is artificial; the problem won't be solved until we got a real deal on fiscal union: which will be difficult.

So, in short, if "market" is functional, then the money will flow to the right countries. To gain cheaper financing on their investment project, these countries will impose fiscal discipline, or even austerity, themselves. In a positive spiral, it will place EU and her composite member states into the right direction.

我還是想回到Prof. Cochrane的文章:
1.) 財政同盟是不必要的: 各國必須要對於自己的舉債狀況負責, 但各國也應該維持他們舉債的彈性. 就像美國各州一樣, 歐洲各國之間的經濟狀況差異很大. 進一步的財政統一並不必要.

那麼我們要怎樣防止歐盟各國花了太多錢?

2.) 國家公債應該就像公司債一樣:
當各國的銀行跟保險公司認為他們所買的該國公債是無風險的時候, 他們其實都買了太多他們自家的公債. 如果公債就像公司債一樣, 有倒債風險的話, 那麼這些投資機構會更加謹慎, 財務資源就自然而然會流向較為"正常", 或者是財務機制較為健全的國家. 而為了得到更好的籌資條件, (不用進一步的法規規定), 各國就會自行調整到較為健全的財務結構, 那慢慢的歐盟就會走向財務體系一致的路線

What EU and ECB is doing is quite different from their American counterparty would have done. In the short-term, their policy might work. Yet, we will see more and more battle goes on in the up-coming years.(when saying years, I mean 3-years, when the ECB loan to these banks mature, we might have to see another headache)

如果像現在這個樣子, 歐洲各國的銀行基本上還是靠著歐洲央行輸血過生活, 而經濟活動, 或者是各國的財務狀況, 也還沒有辦法馬上得到立即的復甦, 歐債真正解決的時間可能只是拖得更長久而已.

European Bank Stress Test: Powered by Reuters

Reuters Bank Stress Test: Core Capital and Hair Cut Level

Reuters has presented a very handy small program to calculate how European Banks may fall short on their capital. The key variable would be target core Tier 1 capital ratio and how sovereign debts may be "hair-cut" to restructure their current debt arrangement.

路透社在關於歐債的報導旁邊出現了一個相當好用的小工具, 可以讓投資人(或者是對於這個議題有興趣的人)持續關注事情的發展狀況. 主要在於: 銀行業有多少資產曝險在各國公債上, 所以當各國公債出現債務減免(我還沒有確切的去找這個用字)的時候, 對於銀行業的衝擊有多少.