Search This Blog

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

German 10-year Bond auction 2012 年德國10年債券標售

Before having a response on this: Let's see what happened on last bond auction.
Insufficient german bond auction: ominous Nov. 23, 2011; 35% of the target does not get any bidding.
German got 103% of bidding on this bond sale Jan 4th, 2012

What's the major difference here in the picture?
6 Central Banks Act to Buy Time in Europe Crisis Nov. 30, 2011.

The hunch feeling is, after that last German bond bidding, the major players in the international financial markets know something gone very wrong. The liquidity is so freezing up that banks do not really have any extra cash to finance the need of national borrowings in EU market. Even if they do, they would rather save their own ass by rolling their bond portfolio on the existing assets. (i.e. Italian banks will rollover on Italian bonds, Spanish banks will roll on Spanish bonds.)

The financially-solid guys (I am not sure whether I shall use the plural form here) cannot get their books refinanced.

So, let the gate open.

They are two ways of the bond market going on now. For those with worse credit rating, players (insurance company, banks, etc.) can go to the ECB window to borrow (in 3 year term) to bid on those bonds on a considerable rate. These countries will have the liquidity to be alive, for going through all "reform" progress. For those better rating countries, international central bankers will help them (again, I am not sure whether a plural form is correct here.) to find reasonable finance, by holding EU as part of reserve on their books and help to bid on their bonds.

2012 seems to have a O.K. starts. The next route? I believe they would strike a deal with Greece, Portugal and Ireland on re-financing( haircut in different degree), and push Spain and Italy to have a good solid financial plan.(well, together with the 3 mentioned before as well)

We will see.

No comments:

Post a Comment

假想情境:Omicron已在歐洲 (?)

  這是荷蘭疫情開始後,病房住院狀態:從這樣的變化,有沒有新型變體已經在歐陸的可能?