QE is about to end.....We start see who swimming naked in ebb time

Financial Times: Bernanke Comments trigger board sell-off  by Dave Shellock (June 20, 2013)
Is this surprising, really?
I was puzzled a bit last night about how stock markets would react to the QE exit in sight. Since all the liquidity coming out of the gate is about to ebb, the investors should find a new place to go, or find a new way to finance their positions. As the market participants figured out pretty much in one day, they sell.....Compared to a rather minor scale of sell-off last night, they really sell off big times tonight(Jun 20).

If, as I mentioned before, the fluctuations earlier this month reflecting the uncertainty of QE exit as a contingent risk,  the assured QE exit presented as a revision of discount rate now. We could see all risk-free rate gauges rise, and the fund managers have to act accordingly. Dumping the risky position, and move toward......, not other safe heavens, but "cash"!

The riskier the position, the deeper the sell-off we will see. That is why we see the emerging markets already experience a big drop in the first two weeks in June. Most emerging market indices trace further downwards later in the month.

I consider this sell-off  ending in one week, since the price will adjust to the "new-normal" discount rate shortly, if  there is no other upcoming big news. Now the market rumors about the shadow banking in China and the potential credit crunch is coming up. Well, we will see soon.

New Updates:
Here comes the results, PBOC stepped into the liquidity situation in China.
China Money Rate retreats after PBOC said to inject cash Bloomberg (Jun 21, 2013)

June is not easy for investors, so will it remain in July and August....There is no fiesta for the summer.

昨天晚上看到Bernanke的談話的時候我困惑的一陣子, 困惑的不是為什麼他要停止,我在我先前的文章: Correction for Uncertainty中已經提到,現在應該是逐步放緩QE最好的時間點.

那麼困惑我的問題是甚麼?

問題非常簡單: 我們都知道便宜的資金準備要停止了, 這樣的話投資人們會怎麼反應? 接下來的投資資金應該要往哪裡去?

今天一早就想通了, 在轉換部位之間,投資人還是要先把手邊的部位清掉再說. 畢竟目前持有的部位是以過去的折現率來考量的. 鬍子伯講得這麼清楚我不會再繼續提供便宜的資金給各位了,那麼大家就先把錢從流動性好的市場上收回來,再考量一下要怎麼重新配置.

有位朋友跟我說, 錢會重新配置到所謂的safe heaven資產上, 他點出了黃金,白銀,跟北歐貨幣. 我對於他的說法想當保留.畢竟現在市場上一看就知道這些部位(尤其是黃金)賣壓遠比證券市場還要沉重,再者當初黃金跟許多大宗物資期貨們的價格上揚一直有種看法是因為, 大量流通性資金出閘, 在市場實體經濟層面缺乏好的投資機會, 所以釋放出的便宜資金才會往那個方向去. 就像北歐與瑞士的資產也是,把歐元印出來的鈔票往相對安全的地方去.

現在便宜資金沒有了,實體經濟逐漸好轉中,市場反而應該要往有生產力,真正能夠獲利的投資計劃上前進.

現在市場上對於中國的銀行業融資狀況有很多揣摩,我不多做評論. 然而,在liquidity不再變得這麼便宜的時候,六七八月可能是投資人真的應該頭痛的時候. 找尋新的好標的之前, 先賣是很多人最快的決定. 賣一賣放個暑假, 等風頭過去再來看看.

可以確定的是, No Fiesta in Summer, 我們應該會在這個暑期看到一個相對冷的證券市場.