2012台股展望

幾個對於台灣股市的想法:

1.) 台灣公司的終端市場在哪?

台灣的產業現在大概有三個主要的終端市場:美國, 歐盟, 中國. 會依照這個順序的原因, 是因為統計數據上來看很難確立我們對於中國出口之後, 有多少零組件經過組裝走向歐美市場. 歐洲市場在2012年應該沒有什麼特別的展望了, 倒是北美市場應該會有相較於去年較好的表現.

2.)台灣整體產業:

台灣的產業政策雖然急欲突破代工的一環, 目前還沒有辦法看到太大的進展. 如果代工產業是台灣整體製造業的宿命, 那我們得問的下個問題是:在代工中間找到什麼樣的利基?

我自己的偏好是具有特長的小公司: 在代工產業鍊中的特長, 指的是整體制程上或者是在技術簡便性上給予客戶更多的好處.  過去的一年對於台灣公司的幾項了解: 在工具機械中間有幾家公司值得注意, 另外, 在光學零件的公司當中也有應得到相當矚目.

如果說代工工廠應該是專注在製造流程上的簡便跟機具的設計的話, 那麼通路商會成為代工產業最好的朋友. 雙方各自經營自己的專業之後的結合可以為台灣的電子產業創造相當不錯的價值. 電子通路台灣的廠商較具規模的兩家, 應該不難注意.

除了這些之外, 我自己的偏好還是在農業與食品的股票上, 這些產品在經濟景氣不確定的狀況下, 是相對穩定的選擇.

3.) 國際環境:

成熟市場:
美國景氣復甦的狀況應該是相對穩定, 雖然經濟復甦力道仍弱, 聯準會願意在任何時候介入的狀況下讓羸弱的金融體系還有更多的時間來應對經濟環境的變化. 相較於美國, 歐盟的政策決定仍然停滯不前. 我會再接下來的一個禮拜中撰寫幾篇到現在的發展狀況.

相較於歐盟這種緩慢的政治決議躊躇不前的狀態, 私部門減少舖險的的動作就相對果斷,以金融業來說, ING進一步減持他們在海外的投資部位, 持續出售他們在亞洲以及拉丁美洲的事業. 而其他的金融業業正積極的尋求出售手邊的資產或者是找尋新的投資人的計畫.

以非金融業來說, 在歐盟的許多公司也正與其他海灣國家洽談投資方案, 雖然說昨天Spanair無預警停飛事件是洽談投資失敗之後的例子, 但是我們可以預期在歐洲景氣不佳的狀況下, 新興市場的資金可以讓歐洲的企業注入新的活水. (不過歐洲人在世界經濟的主導性會持續減弱)

新興市場: 我一項不是中國fan, 主要是因為他們的數據不透明. 香港, 上海股市去年的表現, 進一步削減我對於中國市場的興趣. (如果經濟狀況真的這麼好, 歐債出問題中國應該會可以像海灣國家一樣對歐洲企業大舉進攻才是)
印度去年經歷了令人失望的一年, 俄羅斯高度仰賴天然資源, 去除掉這三個市場之後, 我對於新興市場比較有興趣的是南美洲跟東南亞. 南美洲經歷過多次的經濟波動, 當地政府對於經濟政策相對來說會較有警覺. (相較於中國, 在改革開放後尚未經歷過任何大的泡沫, 現在看來是個更加危險的狀態, 雖然中國的專業官僚在國際社會上一向有不差的評價就是) 而東南亞(印尼, 星,馬)基本來說勞動力仍然豐沛, 政經結構這幾年沒有太大的動亂, 基礎建設有一定的水平, 未來一年的經濟成長應是相對樂觀.

如果有台灣公司著重在美洲與東南亞的市場, 是可以考慮的投資對象.

結語: 如果沒有新的危機出現的狀況, 2012年的第一季應該可以看到該有的解決方案出現, 整體國際的經濟前景, 或好或壞, 應該都會有比較明朗的態勢.當然, 上面的所有文字並沒有隱含任何投資建議, 如果有任何閱讀這篇文章的朋友都得在自己做些功課進行自己的投資判斷.

El Clasico in Copa del Rey, two legs drama 國王杯

My appreciation for blogger Sam Thompson for pictures.

I was planning to write about this as soon as the first leg is closed. Yet, a consolidated two-leg review should be more interesting.

The result is good, as for a Barcelona fan. Yet, the second leg really created some tension. Although I always trusted on Pep Guardiola on his decisions, I have to say sometimes I am really confused of his decisions. In the second leg there are some good examples I will speak.


First leg: Santiago Bernabeu (Real Madrid 1-2 FC Barcelona)

On Attack:
Barcelona's attacking tactic is simple. Control the ball and try to find the gap in the defence line. As I mentioned before, the summer transfer was quite successful, Sanchez and Fabregas prove their value through their consistent performance.

The score came in the least expecting way. One was from the corner freekick, ending with the header of Puyol! The other was the result of rapid passing, directly from the right end side to the left end, with neat final touch of Abidal.

For the first goal, we did little on the free-kick after Ronaldihno age. Occasionally, we could expect a high ball from corner or a decent free kick around box zone, yet we have more short pass open to fit  the tactic: control and movement! For the second goal, we switched attacking side from one end to the other. And the Madrid defence was so puzzled and simply could do little about it. Although I would expect Iniesta in that position, Abidal's persence made the night. (oh, his dance was certainly amusing...:P)

On Defence: Ronaldo made his goal through Barcelona defence. I would say all Barcelona player have done what they could do to defence Ronaldo. He is a world-class player, and a world class player can score in any difficult position. No one to be blamed here.

Second leg: Camp Nou (FC Barcelona 2-2 Real Madrid)

The second match for Barcelona should be quite relaxing. They do not have to do much extra, just doing what they are good at should be fair enough to eliminate Real. Yet, Mourinho is not someone who would sit and wait for that 90 mins passed away. Like a wounded and cornered animal, he would try any possibility to break Barcelona confidence and at least make the score.

On Madrid Side:

I would say, Real Madrid simply waste too many opportunities in the first half, especially the in the first 20 minutes. They could have done better!! One thing I do not understand is the reservation of Benzema on bench. He caused lots of troubles for Barcelona as I recalled in several games, at least in the first leg of this series.

The starting lineup of Mourinho has nothing fresh, I would consider RM side can do better if Benzema could have played the first half. Yet the substitution was quite brilliant and effective. They not only continuously pressed harder on Barcelona defence line, which looked messy and neverous for most of the second half, but also has make the ball move more rapidly, which create several excellent opportunities: and they capitalized two.

On Barcelona Side:

After a few bad situations, Barcelona come back to dominant the scenario. The goal of Pedro is brilliant and the the blast from Alves is another amazing demonstration of our diversified fire power.

Yet the second half is disastrous.

First of all, Mourinho made some good substitution. Bezema has a fresh power to sprint among the defence line and Callejon and Graneno make their defence line more compact. They pressed hard as they should be, since they have nothing to lose given the results in first half. Not sure if that is from confidence or from relaxation, Barcelona players did not respond to such pressure well. Typically, they would resume the control and retreat to back to deep the horizon of game, which make such pressure works in vain at the end. However, they conced the ball easily and eventaully that made them paid.

Secondly, I do not understand Guardiola on this point. Responding to Real's press, Mescherano would be my number one to put in play. A tough guys can interrput Real's attacking waves and ease up the pressure on defence. Yet, replacing Fabregas with Thiago means that we would have a rather young player in midfield, heavy the workload of Xavi and Messi, and weaken the organization of possible counter attack.

Some fellow Barcelona fan complained of the control in the second half, and attributed that to the early exit of Iniesta. (Off in 29 mins, Injured in this match) I do not think that is the reason, since we already played a fabulous first half without him. And the last 20 mins of first half present a strong dominance. We literally made Real players chasing us with a very good short-distant, high-speed accurate passing. We did not replicate that in second half. Partially due to the defence of Real; and partially because of the erosion of energy along the play. Hence, the substution decision seems important here.

Overall:

It is just pity that we lost two players in injury in the second leg. Although I always respect Real Madrid as opponent, yet some of their plays were really nasty. Check out th statistics and I think it speaks out naturally. Anyway, two good match, some nice tension, and El clasico is just a thing you must see!

Statistics for the first leg

Statistics for the second leg

中文簡版:
身為一個巴薩迷, 這兩年來可以說有不少好比賽可以看. 每年在例行的聯賽兩場對陣之外, 國王盃的盃賽甚至可能的歐冠比賽都有機會對上皇馬. 去年一共打了五場El Clasico (一場國王盃, 兩場歐洲冠軍盃, 跟兩場西班牙甲級聯賽), 今年在國王盃八強對上皇馬, 至少就會有四場El Clasico 賽事.

第一腿: 在皇馬主場的比賽沒有打出特別的亮點, 或者是說, 巴薩在這幾年的打法已經讓人相當熟悉, 而身為巴薩迷也會把這一切的發生當成理所當然. "歐 又是場美妙的比賽"

雖然我們先被進球, 但是我們卻又再次的主導比賽. 控球比是很漂亮的數據, 而且被進球之後一點都不慌張, 反而皇馬自己把自己的場面玩小了, 撤退到自己的防守半徑去想要在主場拿下這一分. 但是我們透過不常見的角球開入禁區的頭球和快速的兩翼互換(Alves=>Messi=> Abidal), 硬生生要他們吞下一場敗仗.

就像Pique說的: "當我們用自己的方式踢球, 沒人阻止的了我們" (When we are ourselves, nobody can stop us/Quan som nosaltres no hi ha cap equip que ens pari/Cuando somos nosotros no hay ningún equipo que nos pare)

第二腿:
(謎之音: 皮少, 但如果你用你自己的方式踢球, 你會毀了我們)

打完上半場總積分4-1的領先讓人家可以鬆一口氣, 但是下半場卻又打的完全不像樣. 被追到了4-3的總積分差, 那種差點就翻船的感覺讓人有種"現在到底是誰佔優勢押?"的困惑感.

有人說下半場的控制場面不好是因為Iniesta太早下場了, 但我卻不覺得這是問題主因. 在上半場我們就沒有Iniesta, 而Pep在Iniesta下場後換上Pedro是個成功的決定, Pedro的跑動一直很具有侵略性, 他雖然沒有像Iniesta一樣優異的中場控球能力, 但是在中場球員還有Cesc的狀況下這並不是太大的問題. 但是在下半場的換人就顯得令人困惑. 在還有Mascherano在板凳上的情況下, 撤換Cesc替上的是Thiago並沒有讓中場控制增加, 而在先前爭球過程中有點受傷的Alexi應該要更早下場休息. 我賽後想想還有那種兩種換人應該對掉時間比較合理的想法(先拿Mascherano換Alexi, 晚點在拿Thiago換Cesc)
打完比賽之後我必須說Mourihno 是個優秀的教練, 至少在換人跟壓迫的決定上他做了身為皇馬教練應該做的事情. 雖然他有些招式實在難以讓人茍同,尤其是拿牌好像拿不用錢的(黃牌以後應該改名叫做皇牌好了).

Tax, Tax, Tax, Tax the Job creator and the wealthiest!

There are three articles I would like to share, with on-going European Debt crisis and the opening of US presidential candidacy competition heat up such topic: Where the tax should come from ? How we shall view tax in this global financial system?

Pumping oil, and pump in cash? Qatar and UAE as white knight into EU?

歐債各國準備跳樓大拍賣

UniCredit Gains Private Investor Supports
UniCredit, the biggest Italian bank in terms of asset size, in which a great proportion are Italian national bonds.They need fresh capital to prepare for possible write-offs on these assets. UAE now is going to be their sole biggest individual investors, after taking additional 1.5% via a new rights offering plan.

義大利最大的銀行準備新一輪的股權出售計畫, 而UAE的主權基金旗下的一家投資公司(Aabar Investment) 將會透過這個機會擴張他們的持有的股權比率, 從5%增加到6.5%, 並且成為UniCredit最大的股東

Greek prepare for State Asset Sales
Greek government also eyes on UAE's money, yet they might have other options at hands. An economic forum in Qatar may help them to draw other investors from gulf region. They are selling various of their national assets, including natural gas refinery, mining companies, lands on two major islands, a northern highway, 39 airports and 12 harbours.

希臘除了靠別人的紓困之外, 開始找尋其他的解套方式. 今年檯面上有的出售標的包括: 天然氣工廠, 採礦工廠, 幾座島嶼,  一條高速公路, 39個機場, 以及12個港口

Xmas and New Year have gone, yet the sales spirit remains!!

家鄉的民主(3): 從2012大選看出幾個台灣民主過程中演進與創新

選舉落幕, 沉澱了一下之後有幾個想法,

棒球板名言 "台灣的國球就是贏球", 套在選舉好像也行得通, 所以結果出來了, 雖然幾家歡樂幾家愁, 但是到底我們經歷了什麼? 似乎睡覺完醒來就忘掉了.

在我自己的家庭教育裡, 告訴我說要重視過程, 不要太重視結果, 但是事實上大家其實都直接忽略不太在乎過程, 所以變成了我寫這篇文章的動機

這篇文章, 或許可以提起大家關注一些再過程中容易被忽略的議題跟轉折,

The second game after winter break: FCB v. Betis (4-2)

There are a few things worth noting in this game, so this article is born.

1. This is the first time we yield goals to opponent at home match, and, ya, we yield 2 goals to them!!!

This result might be attributed to a rather unfamiliar starting formation (at least for me) in this match. We only place Puyol, Abidal and Mescherano on defending size. Though Alves coming in at 46 mins in second half and we yield a second goal at 52 mins, four players on defence side makes it more stable in second half. I believe we need a stable four defendants (including both wing defender) on the field. An winter or summer transfer for a fresh left-wing defender is most needed.
這場比賽被Betis進的兩球, 是今年賽季主場第一次失球, 還一次失兩球, 嘖嘖

防守線上只放三名球員看起來真的抖的有勝, 4-4-2的陣行就非得要有雙翼的防守才行. 找個便宜有成長潛力的替補左後應該是冬轉或者是夏轉的首要課題.

2. While defence may need reinforcement, attacking fire power has solid demostration, and versatility.
a few statistics worth noticing:

a. Overall: We are less than half way(17 games played/ 38games in total) in La Liga this year so far, and we already scored 51 goals. Last season we got 95 goals in whole season. A mark can be surpassed this year.
b. Xavi: He has marked 6 goals in this year, expecting a career hightest goal score per season. The career highlight is 7 goals in La Liga (2007-2008) season. With half season to go, it won't be hard to break the past record.
c. Alexis and Fabregas: proven to be successful transfer in last summer window. The former scoring 6 goals and the later made 9 goals so far. Not even mentioning the assistance coming from boarder perspectives that makes others harder to defend.

防守看起來很抖, 但是進攻看起來就好得太多. Xavi今年已經打進六球, 快要接近他過去單季最高進球紀錄(7球, 07-08球季)
今年的轉會算是相當成功, Cesc 愛家(加)的就感心轉會讓我們除了增加中場控制之外, 還大幅增強了攻擊火力可以說是可喜可賀. 就算是傷病衝擊了Pedro跟Villa看來對攻擊火力並沒有太大的減損. 事實上, 在攻擊面我們比過去還更強大, 打了不到球季的一半我們已經進了51顆球, 去年全年是進了95球.

3. Referee to be blamed? Iniesta's card looks dubious.

I probably should wrote this when last match was played. Espanyol did not deserved that equal game since a handball clearly overlooked. When this match, Iniesta should not get a card, and he did (get one).

MD has a special report on this issue. And Xavi said: " This year the errors of referees become the reality"

It is always a lame reason to blame referee for not winning games. Yet it always worth to strike such issue. Referee errors simply sucks, and even sucks more when they consistently benefit one team and against the other.

在上一場裁判被鬼遮眼的手球誤判就讓我很不爽了, 這場Iniesta又莫名的被發了張黃牌. Pep說他會上訴, Xavi也說今年誤判快要變成常態了, MD還特別做了個統計看一下說到底誤判發生在我們跟馬德里身上會長得怎樣.

(p.s.馬德里跟Mallorca那場比賽似乎也有個有利馬德里的penalty有被拿來討論)

雖然靠北裁判是個很遜的理由, 但是誤判會減少比賽的精采程度.
在FB上面看到一個有趣的巴薩球迷說:
"Rajoy一上台, 西甲的裁判也都準備好了"
(註: 西班牙前首相Zapatero曾經說過他是巴薩迷, 至於Rajoy跟PP一向是支持馬德里最高主義的)

4. Equal hurts:

So far we have 5 equal games already. The whole last season we only have 6. one at home(0-0) and all other 4 are away. We definitely need to work more on that.

太多平手啦, 去年一整年也才六場平局, 今年打到現在就已經五場了. 打客場比賽, 很有可能每個球隊都會用更凶悍的踢鏟與更鐵桶的陣型來面對, 但是連西甲球隊打客場都這麼辛苦的話, 在歐陸戰場上我們將會更辛苦. 踢客場比賽變成下半年主要的問題所在!

oh, one more thing. (and breaking news): Abidal's contract has been renewed!! We could have a good solid half season to go!

歐 在打這篇文章的同時, 媒體發布了Abidal續約的消息!!


Força Barça!

Maxwell may leave for PSG 麥克斯威爾咖啡上巴黎去

Maxwell can leave FCB in the following hours.
馬可斯威爾離開巴薩前往PSG

家鄉的民主(2): 從經濟學人民主指標(2011)來看台灣人認知的民主

民主到底是什麼鬼?

先來談談台灣的民主狀況

經濟學人民主指標 2011年, 我們第37名, 以得分的定義上, 我們叫做flawed democracy. (有缺陷的民主), 近四年我們得到的排名各為: 32 33 36 37 (2011年)
經濟學人每年對會對於各國民主狀況進行調查, 在五項不同的指標項,包括了60個不同的問題. 而每個問題可能是1, 0.5, 或者是0分, 這些領域分別是:
1.) Electoral process and pluralism 選舉的過程以及多元主義
2.) Functioning of government 政府的職權
3.) Political participation 政治參與
4.) Democratic political culture 民主政治的文化
5.) Civil liberties 公民自由

台灣的總評分數是 7.46,低於總評分數的三項是:政府效能(7.14), 政治參與(5.56), 與民主政治的文化(6.88)

等一下, 每次選舉的沸沸湯湯搖旗吶喊, 難道都是假的?

家鄉的民主(1): 選舉是以四年為一期的感情關係

小心, 你的選票正把權力讓渡給人, 合法的從你口袋中領錢, 而
"政客做事情用的是我繳的稅金，所以我有權利跟義務去修理他們"
(by 國寶級白目馮光遠)

(家鄉民主大事要到了, 我沒有那樣的經濟資源可以回家投票, 我只能用比較"經濟實惠"的角度來寫篇文章. 這本來用另外一個角度來寫, 但最後我決定試圖用一種新的看法來陳述, 把另外一個版本寫成另一篇.  希望大家珍惜手邊有的選舉權, 作出一位民主社會公民的決定.)

German 10-year Bond auction 2012 年德國10年債券標售

Before having a response on this: Let's see what happened on last bond auction.
Insufficient german bond auction: ominous Nov. 23, 2011; 35% of the target does not get any bidding.
German got 103% of bidding on this bond sale Jan 4th, 2012

What's the major difference here in the picture?
6 Central Banks Act to Buy Time in Europe Crisis Nov. 30, 2011.

The hunch feeling is, after that last German bond bidding, the major players in the international financial markets know something gone very wrong. The liquidity is so freezing up that banks do not really have any extra cash to finance the need of national borrowings in EU market. Even if they do, they would rather save their own ass by rolling their bond portfolio on the existing assets. (i.e. Italian banks will rollover on Italian bonds, Spanish banks will roll on Spanish bonds.)

The financially-solid guys (I am not sure whether I shall use the plural form here) cannot get their books refinanced.

So, let the gate open.

They are two ways of the bond market going on now. For those with worse credit rating, players (insurance company, banks, etc.) can go to the ECB window to borrow (in 3 year term) to bid on those bonds on a considerable rate. These countries will have the liquidity to be alive, for going through all "reform" progress. For those better rating countries, international central bankers will help them (again, I am not sure whether a plural form is correct here.) to find reasonable finance, by holding EU as part of reserve on their books and help to bid on their bonds.

2012 seems to have a O.K. starts. The next route? I believe they would strike a deal with Greece, Portugal and Ireland on re-financing( haircut in different degree), and push Spain and Italy to have a good solid financial plan.(well, together with the 3 mentioned before as well)

We will see.

How new tax policy may affect on club competitiveness: An Eric Abidal Case

Renew the contract? Settle the tax issue first!!
Abidal 要續約? 先看政府的稅率政策在說

跨業投資(1): 你們家挖到石油了嗎? 不, 我們挖到了Kevin Garnett

Kevin Garnett becomes the new shareholder of AS Roma
你們家挖到石油了嗎? 不, 我們挖到了Kevin Garnett

在近幾年來歐洲經濟狀況不佳，足球的競技又經常得花大錢的狀態下，讓很多足球俱樂部陷入財務困境。自然而然的，不少足球俱樂部開始找上手上有現金的投資人：中東的油元(Man City)，俄羅斯的天然氣財富(Chelsea)，甚至是曾經失敗的印度資金(Malaga)，甚至是美國的投資人(Liverpool/As Roma)都想要來歐洲插一"腳"。歐洲的足球世界開始出現了一些改變。這五年來足球迷對於轉會市場上的大筆金錢交易，常常開玩笑的一句話" 你們家挖到石油了嗎? "