小心, 你的選票正把權力讓渡給人, 合法的從你口袋中領錢, 而
"政客做事情用的是我繳的稅金，所以我有權利跟義務去修理他們"
(by 國寶級白目馮光遠)
(家鄉民主大事要到了, 我沒有那樣的經濟資源可以回家投票, 我只能用比較"經濟實惠"的角度來寫篇文章. 這本來用另外一個角度來寫, 但最後我決定試圖用一種新的看法來陳述, 把另外一個版本寫成另一篇. 希望大家珍惜手邊有的選舉權, 作出一位民主社會公民的決定.)
Monday, January 9, 2012
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
German 10-year Bond auction 2012 年德國10年債券標售
Before having a response on this: Let's see what happened on last bond auction.
Insufficient german bond auction: ominous Nov. 23, 2011; 35% of the target does not get any bidding.
German got 103% of bidding on this bond sale Jan 4th, 2012
What's the major difference here in the picture?
6 Central Banks Act to Buy Time in Europe Crisis Nov. 30, 2011.
The hunch feeling is, after that last German bond bidding, the major players in the international financial markets know something gone very wrong. The liquidity is so freezing up that banks do not really have any extra cash to finance the need of national borrowings in EU market. Even if they do, they would rather save their own ass by rolling their bond portfolio on the existing assets. (i.e. Italian banks will rollover on Italian bonds, Spanish banks will roll on Spanish bonds.)
The financially-solid guys (I am not sure whether I shall use the plural form here) cannot get their books refinanced.
So, let the gate open.
They are two ways of the bond market going on now. For those with worse credit rating, players (insurance company, banks, etc.) can go to the ECB window to borrow (in 3 year term) to bid on those bonds on a considerable rate. These countries will have the liquidity to be alive, for going through all "reform" progress. For those better rating countries, international central bankers will help them (again, I am not sure whether a plural form is correct here.) to find reasonable finance, by holding EU as part of reserve on their books and help to bid on their bonds.
2012 seems to have a O.K. starts. The next route? I believe they would strike a deal with Greece, Portugal and Ireland on re-financing( haircut in different degree), and push Spain and Italy to have a good solid financial plan.(well, together with the 3 mentioned before as well)
We will see.
Insufficient german bond auction: ominous Nov. 23, 2011; 35% of the target does not get any bidding.
German got 103% of bidding on this bond sale Jan 4th, 2012
What's the major difference here in the picture?
6 Central Banks Act to Buy Time in Europe Crisis Nov. 30, 2011.
The hunch feeling is, after that last German bond bidding, the major players in the international financial markets know something gone very wrong. The liquidity is so freezing up that banks do not really have any extra cash to finance the need of national borrowings in EU market. Even if they do, they would rather save their own ass by rolling their bond portfolio on the existing assets. (i.e. Italian banks will rollover on Italian bonds, Spanish banks will roll on Spanish bonds.)
The financially-solid guys (I am not sure whether I shall use the plural form here) cannot get their books refinanced.
So, let the gate open.
They are two ways of the bond market going on now. For those with worse credit rating, players (insurance company, banks, etc.) can go to the ECB window to borrow (in 3 year term) to bid on those bonds on a considerable rate. These countries will have the liquidity to be alive, for going through all "reform" progress. For those better rating countries, international central bankers will help them (again, I am not sure whether a plural form is correct here.) to find reasonable finance, by holding EU as part of reserve on their books and help to bid on their bonds.
2012 seems to have a O.K. starts. The next route? I believe they would strike a deal with Greece, Portugal and Ireland on re-financing( haircut in different degree), and push Spain and Italy to have a good solid financial plan.(well, together with the 3 mentioned before as well)
We will see.
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
Monday, January 2, 2012
跨業投資(1): 你們家挖到石油了嗎? 不, 我們挖到了Kevin Garnett
Kevin Garnett becomes the new shareholder of AS Roma
你們家挖到石油了嗎? 不, 我們挖到了Kevin Garnett
在近幾年來歐洲經濟狀況不佳，足球的競技又經常得花大錢的狀態下，讓很多足球俱樂部陷入財務困境。自然而然的，不少足球俱樂部開始找上手上有現金的投資人：中東的油元(Man City)，俄羅斯的天然氣財富(Chelsea)，甚至是曾經失敗的印度資金(Malaga)，甚至是美國的投資人(Liverpool/As Roma)都想要來歐洲插一"腳"。歐洲的足球世界開始出現了一些改變。這五年來足球迷對於轉會市場上的大筆金錢交易，常常開玩笑的一句話" 你們家挖到石油了嗎? "
你們家挖到石油了嗎? 不, 我們挖到了Kevin Garnett
在近幾年來歐洲經濟狀況不佳，足球的競技又經常得花大錢的狀態下，讓很多足球俱樂部陷入財務困境。自然而然的，不少足球俱樂部開始找上手上有現金的投資人：中東的油元(Man City)，俄羅斯的天然氣財富(Chelsea)，甚至是曾經失敗的印度資金(Malaga)，甚至是美國的投資人(Liverpool/As Roma)都想要來歐洲插一"腳"。歐洲的足球世界開始出現了一些改變。這五年來足球迷對於轉會市場上的大筆金錢交易，常常開玩笑的一句話" 你們家挖到石油了嗎? "
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Italian Job: Calling for more fund
Itay seeks bigger fund....After tough debt sales
Yes, Xmas it is; yes, New Year is approaching, yet we do not see much will change.
Italian 10 year bond sell at 6.98%, not really far from their record high of 7.56% one month ago.
I will say it s more like indication than a problem for this on-going crisis. As mentioned before, ECB would like to drive down the rate with the massive funding into the national banking sectors, encouraging them to purchase their national bond. Yet, longer maturity bonds are out of the range of this fire power. This auction rate still tell these national government:
義大利今天的公債標售並沒有想像中好的利率: 跟昨天的新聞不同的是: 昨天標售的是較短年期的債券;而今天標售的是十年期債券.
"Hey, uncertainty is high and we still ask for decent return to justify our bid on such risks"
What uncertainty we talks about now?
Whether technocrats can contruct a sensible national budget, with revision of some key domestic policies: such as tax system and pension plans?
Whether EU is going to achieve a concensus on fiscal policies and fiscal union, and going to form a new treaty on that?
市場仍然觀望, 這些不確定性: 包括未來義大利政府是否能夠成功的扭轉國家政策, 以及歐盟當局是否將財政紀律明文化
In this festiva mood, the true difficulty of European debt crisis just about to start, not even close to end.
在節慶的氣氛中, 歐債真正的處置真正開始, 離結束還有一段遙遠的距離.
Yes, Xmas it is; yes, New Year is approaching, yet we do not see much will change.
Italian 10 year bond sell at 6.98%, not really far from their record high of 7.56% one month ago.
I will say it s more like indication than a problem for this on-going crisis. As mentioned before, ECB would like to drive down the rate with the massive funding into the national banking sectors, encouraging them to purchase their national bond. Yet, longer maturity bonds are out of the range of this fire power. This auction rate still tell these national government:
義大利今天的公債標售並沒有想像中好的利率: 跟昨天的新聞不同的是: 昨天標售的是較短年期的債券;而今天標售的是十年期債券.
"Hey, uncertainty is high and we still ask for decent return to justify our bid on such risks"
What uncertainty we talks about now?
Whether technocrats can contruct a sensible national budget, with revision of some key domestic policies: such as tax system and pension plans?
Whether EU is going to achieve a concensus on fiscal policies and fiscal union, and going to form a new treaty on that?
市場仍然觀望, 這些不確定性: 包括未來義大利政府是否能夠成功的扭轉國家政策, 以及歐盟當局是否將財政紀律明文化
In this festiva mood, the true difficulty of European debt crisis just about to start, not even close to end.
在節慶的氣氛中, 歐債真正的處置真正開始, 離結束還有一段遙遠的距離.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
EU Debt Crisis Resolution: Pieces of the Picture
Two Leading News by the end of 2011
2011年, 兩個主要的公債消息: 西班牙公債跟義大利公債拍賣各宣布了些好消息
Spanish Bond Auction Result, and the Weighted-Average Rate now
Italian Borrowing Cost decline
We can gradually see the ECB and EU operation from these information:
As for ECB: ECB injected the liquidity to banks, implicitly encourage the banks bidding on national debts, to drive down the borrowing cost, for these governments to stir through this turbulence.
As for EU: the government side, these funding does not come without a cost, they have to implement a series of austerity program. "Austerity" means: a boarder cut of government budget, a smaller cheques(public transfer) for their citizens, a higher retirement age, and limited social security package. These may gradually lead to a greater fiscal union within EU structure. New treaty? New power? these are still under discussion.
我們可以從兩個方向簡單來的看目前歐洲的解決方案:
歐洲央行給了歐洲各國的銀行短期(三年)的低利貸款,這些低利貸款直接放貸給各國銀行, 然後各國銀行可以藉由歐洲各國的公債標售市場, 投入更多的金額到各國公債中, 降低各國公債借款利率.
但各國畢竟還是得自己建立起償債能力, 這個部分就得透過歐盟最近的協商來進行. 主要的問題就在於財政同盟是否可以順利推行: 也就是說, 歐盟成立當時的各國財政計畫將會用更嚴謹的方式來執行: 這是場政治角力, 也是整個計畫最困難的部分.
The first part seems working so far, at least from recent auction news: market responded positively on these package; therefore, these indebted governments can finance themselves with lower cost, buying themselves more time to achieve the fiscal packages they need to push through via those technocrats.
Yet, now it is the key for the second part: will politics play nice and neat to a boarder consensus on fiscal policies and amend the treaties(or signing up new ones) accordingly.
The tough part has yet come, the real battles are in 2012, for all we know "nice and neat" ain't the word for politics.
目前第一部分是可行的, 至少以最近公債標售的狀況來講, 義大利西班牙兩國都可以稍微喘口氣, 但第二部分就不知道是否真的行得通了: 至少在聖誕節前看起來, 歐盟各國還有很多路要走.
歐洲是不是德國說了算? 這篇從前法國外交官筆下的描述就可以知道歐盟的政治協商還有多遠要走.
Let's pull off from Europe and revisit an American view presented by Prof. Cochrane:
There are two points I agree most and believe should be emphasized:
1.) Fiscal Union is not really necessary:
Prof. Cochrane brought out some analogue, comparing states in United States and member states in European Union. We all know across different States in US, the economic development varies. A state government should have some autonomy over their fiscal policies.
But, wait, then how can we control these countries that they do not spend too much, and digging holes for themselves again?
2.) Naitonal debt should be treated as corporate debt:
Here, a key word is "market"
If investors decide to invest into a riskier corporate bond, then they know they bear the risk of default.
They ask for higher rate, and the price of bond would reflect the riskiness of such security.
Why not national debt should be treated the same?
because national debt default would trigger the domino effect, and the linkage, as I mentioned in previous article, is through banking channels.
So, Prof. Cochrane suggest decoupling is necessary, and consider the current intervention will only push the risk even higher. These Xmas picture is artificial; the problem won't be solved until we got a real deal on fiscal union: which will be difficult.
So, in short, if "market" is functional, then the money will flow to the right countries. To gain cheaper financing on their investment project, these countries will impose fiscal discipline, or even austerity, themselves. In a positive spiral, it will place EU and her composite member states into the right direction.
我還是想回到Prof. Cochrane的文章:
1.) 財政同盟是不必要的: 各國必須要對於自己的舉債狀況負責, 但各國也應該維持他們舉債的彈性. 就像美國各州一樣, 歐洲各國之間的經濟狀況差異很大. 進一步的財政統一並不必要.
那麼我們要怎樣防止歐盟各國花了太多錢?
2.) 國家公債應該就像公司債一樣:
當各國的銀行跟保險公司認為他們所買的該國公債是無風險的時候, 他們其實都買了太多他們自家的公債. 如果公債就像公司債一樣, 有倒債風險的話, 那麼這些投資機構會更加謹慎, 財務資源就自然而然會流向較為"正常", 或者是財務機制較為健全的國家. 而為了得到更好的籌資條件, (不用進一步的法規規定), 各國就會自行調整到較為健全的財務結構, 那慢慢的歐盟就會走向財務體系一致的路線
What EU and ECB is doing is quite different from their American counterparty would have done. In the short-term, their policy might work. Yet, we will see more and more battle goes on in the up-coming years.(when saying years, I mean 3-years, when the ECB loan to these banks mature, we might have to see another headache)
如果像現在這個樣子, 歐洲各國的銀行基本上還是靠著歐洲央行輸血過生活, 而經濟活動, 或者是各國的財務狀況, 也還沒有辦法馬上得到立即的復甦, 歐債真正解決的時間可能只是拖得更長久而已.
2011年, 兩個主要的公債消息: 西班牙公債跟義大利公債拍賣各宣布了些好消息
Spanish Bond Auction Result, and the Weighted-Average Rate now
Italian Borrowing Cost decline
We can gradually see the ECB and EU operation from these information:
As for ECB: ECB injected the liquidity to banks, implicitly encourage the banks bidding on national debts, to drive down the borrowing cost, for these governments to stir through this turbulence.
As for EU: the government side, these funding does not come without a cost, they have to implement a series of austerity program. "Austerity" means: a boarder cut of government budget, a smaller cheques(public transfer) for their citizens, a higher retirement age, and limited social security package. These may gradually lead to a greater fiscal union within EU structure. New treaty? New power? these are still under discussion.
我們可以從兩個方向簡單來的看目前歐洲的解決方案:
歐洲央行給了歐洲各國的銀行短期(三年)的低利貸款,這些低利貸款直接放貸給各國銀行, 然後各國銀行可以藉由歐洲各國的公債標售市場, 投入更多的金額到各國公債中, 降低各國公債借款利率.
但各國畢竟還是得自己建立起償債能力, 這個部分就得透過歐盟最近的協商來進行. 主要的問題就在於財政同盟是否可以順利推行: 也就是說, 歐盟成立當時的各國財政計畫將會用更嚴謹的方式來執行: 這是場政治角力, 也是整個計畫最困難的部分.
The first part seems working so far, at least from recent auction news: market responded positively on these package; therefore, these indebted governments can finance themselves with lower cost, buying themselves more time to achieve the fiscal packages they need to push through via those technocrats.
Yet, now it is the key for the second part: will politics play nice and neat to a boarder consensus on fiscal policies and amend the treaties(or signing up new ones) accordingly.
The tough part has yet come, the real battles are in 2012, for all we know "nice and neat" ain't the word for politics.
目前第一部分是可行的, 至少以最近公債標售的狀況來講, 義大利西班牙兩國都可以稍微喘口氣, 但第二部分就不知道是否真的行得通了: 至少在聖誕節前看起來, 歐盟各國還有很多路要走.
歐洲是不是德國說了算? 這篇從前法國外交官筆下的描述就可以知道歐盟的政治協商還有多遠要走.
Let's pull off from Europe and revisit an American view presented by Prof. Cochrane:
There are two points I agree most and believe should be emphasized:
1.) Fiscal Union is not really necessary:
Prof. Cochrane brought out some analogue, comparing states in United States and member states in European Union. We all know across different States in US, the economic development varies. A state government should have some autonomy over their fiscal policies.
But, wait, then how can we control these countries that they do not spend too much, and digging holes for themselves again?
2.) Naitonal debt should be treated as corporate debt:
Here, a key word is "market"
If investors decide to invest into a riskier corporate bond, then they know they bear the risk of default.
They ask for higher rate, and the price of bond would reflect the riskiness of such security.
Why not national debt should be treated the same?
because national debt default would trigger the domino effect, and the linkage, as I mentioned in previous article, is through banking channels.
So, Prof. Cochrane suggest decoupling is necessary, and consider the current intervention will only push the risk even higher. These Xmas picture is artificial; the problem won't be solved until we got a real deal on fiscal union: which will be difficult.
So, in short, if "market" is functional, then the money will flow to the right countries. To gain cheaper financing on their investment project, these countries will impose fiscal discipline, or even austerity, themselves. In a positive spiral, it will place EU and her composite member states into the right direction.
我還是想回到Prof. Cochrane的文章:
1.) 財政同盟是不必要的: 各國必須要對於自己的舉債狀況負責, 但各國也應該維持他們舉債的彈性. 就像美國各州一樣, 歐洲各國之間的經濟狀況差異很大. 進一步的財政統一並不必要.
那麼我們要怎樣防止歐盟各國花了太多錢?
2.) 國家公債應該就像公司債一樣:
當各國的銀行跟保險公司認為他們所買的該國公債是無風險的時候, 他們其實都買了太多他們自家的公債. 如果公債就像公司債一樣, 有倒債風險的話, 那麼這些投資機構會更加謹慎, 財務資源就自然而然會流向較為"正常", 或者是財務機制較為健全的國家. 而為了得到更好的籌資條件, (不用進一步的法規規定), 各國就會自行調整到較為健全的財務結構, 那慢慢的歐盟就會走向財務體系一致的路線
What EU and ECB is doing is quite different from their American counterparty would have done. In the short-term, their policy might work. Yet, we will see more and more battle goes on in the up-coming years.(when saying years, I mean 3-years, when the ECB loan to these banks mature, we might have to see another headache)
如果像現在這個樣子, 歐洲各國的銀行基本上還是靠著歐洲央行輸血過生活, 而經濟活動, 或者是各國的財務狀況, 也還沒有辦法馬上得到立即的復甦, 歐債真正解決的時間可能只是拖得更長久而已.
Friday, December 23, 2011
糟糕的想法把歐債弄得更慘：By Prof. John H. Cochrane (中文版)
這是一則關於在2011年底，芝加哥大學的教授John H. Cochrane在Bloomberg發表的社論。以"糟糕的想法把歐債危機弄得更慘"(How bad Ideas worsen Europe's Debt Meltdown) 為題，陳述對於歐債問題的一項"美國觀點"。
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這張圖，是1700年，西班牙國王查理二世(Charles II)過世後，歐洲列強的領域狀態。所謂 "西班牙" ，在歐陸的板塊，就是圖中深綠色的部分。 a.) 大家所熟知的西班牙： 伊比利半島的部分，左側為卡斯提牙王國。 b.) 阿拉貢王國的地中海霸... -
這則影片非常有趣，從紅酒的評價，可以討論：一項商品"價格"，"專業訓練"，"品質"，以及"事實"。( 影片/報導來源 ： VOX (May 20, 2015) 貴的酒是給潘仔喝的
