CMW: The Review of his 5 MLB starting....so far

This is the summary of his 5 starts in Blue Jays: He got three solid outing and two disastrous starts. what could we see from these simple numbers?

這是王建民五場先發來的一些基本數據, 其實,從這些簡單的數據我們就可以看出很多了

Data Source: MLB.com 資料整理: Ivan Lin

Let's start with the table above

Sinker is still his major weapon, he could still hover around the game with fair-enough sinkers. The second pitch to work on might be Splitter. Slider is terrible......
如果我們先看上面的表來看的話, 其實王的Sinker還是不差, 但是其他可以配合的球種真的很稀少. 我曾經在王第一場對上白襪的文章中提到, 投手教練跟牛棚教練過去球員時期擅長的是指叉/快速指叉跟滑球. 王是不是能夠繼續在藍鳥體系把配合的變化球練好, 是他能夠重回大聯盟的關鍵之一.

但是重點還是伸卡球還是要維持一樣的威力.

Here in this Table, I did not show his Sinker/Total pitch percentage in each game. They are 76%(@White Sox), 71%(@Rangers), 82%(v.s. Orioles) in 3 good outings. In the bad two, the numbers are 62%(@Red Sox) and 85%(v.s Tigers) 
在圖表中, 我沒有特別列出他每場球使用Sinker的比率, 投得好的幾場Sinker通常用比較高一點, 而比較不好的那兩場,不是變化球配太多不夠好,就是Sinker根本消失威力.

The next question would be: what happened then?
Two Hypothesis:
1. Velocity of sinkers was affected by
a.) training/usage of breaking balls
b.) pitching mechanism change.
2. His body should be warm-up well(In the last game v.s. Tigers, after the first innings, he had a long gap.)兩個猜想: Sinker的球速因為變化球練習或者是投球機制影響, 以及他身體冷掉之後Sinker完全就無法催出來.

Velocity of Sinker: I simply drew the distribution of the sinker speed for these 5 games. In Figure 1, I plotted the distribution of full game sinker usage. In Figure 2, I mapped the last two startings with the first 3 games for the first 30 sinkers.下面兩張圖我大致上畫了王在這幾場使用Sinker的狀況跟球速的問題. 第一張圖是所有的Sinker; 而第二張圖, 因為最後兩場比賽都只有丟兩局,所以我對應到前30顆Sinker左右. 

Data Source: MLB.com, 資料整理: Ivan Lin, PTT 王建民板yam1682001

First, in Figure 1, we could see two distinct speed distribution patterns. The first 3 games v. the last 2 games have very different distribution. In the game in Boston, Wang even cannot make his Sinker to 91mph. When he try to use other breaking balls, his power is completely gone. It is a possible evidence to support hypothesis 1-a. These batters knew what is coming, and they jumped all over Wang.

第一張圖簡單來看就是王建民在這五場先發中伸卡球的比率分佈, 簡單來說,用了變化球最多的對上紅襪的比賽,整個Sinker的速度就是死掉,支持上面猜想裡面1-a的部分.

Secondly, we could see, in the first 3 games, one the right tail, Wang's sinkers could go up to 90-92. That is when he could still be effective, though not as good as what he did in Yankee's period with all 93-94 sinkers coming to the plate. 

其次, 我想要點出道後面兩場的問題. 前三場Sinker的distribution都很漂亮的落在90-92mph左右, 如果Sinker維持這樣的狀況,還是能夠當做一個不錯的主要球種使用.

The last starting v.s. Tigers could have been better, I could argue. He used sinkers a lot, and the shape looked "possible" to go toward the first 3 outings. However, he could not bring up the speed, before he got out of trouble.
但是到最後兩場就出問題. 事實上,如果再Detroit那場可以再撐久一點,或許Sinker的速度有機會回來, 但是太快就被打者結束了, 我們也無法知道是否Sinker有辦法回到像前三場一樣的速度.

Data Source: MLB.com, 資料整理: Ivan Lin, PTT 王建民板yam1682001

If we go further into Figure 2, only looking at the first 30s Sinkers he pitched, we might come up with some more ideas. Only in the game against White Sox did Wang get into condition quickly, his first few pitch concentrated around 91-92. In later games, it seemed that he was warming up while pitching. Especially in the last two outing, he could not make it to 91-92 pitch. As mentioned before, one possibility was that the usage of breaking ball would affect the power of sinker. In the game against Detroit, I suspect the big gaps between first and second innings affected his sinker.如果我們移到第二張表,看一下他大概在前30球的Sinker的狀況. 我們就發現了除了第一場對白襪的比賽, 他的Sinker很早就進入狀況之外, 其他幾場比賽Sinker的球威都比較晚出現. 但是至少還能上到91-92的水準. 但是在最後兩場比賽,完全頭不出那樣的球, 這就是為什麼我會提出第二個猜想,就是王需要比較長的暖身時間. 對上底特律老虎的比賽, 一局藍鳥進攻時花了很多時間,王的手臂是不是因為這樣就冷下來了,沒有辦法把球速很快的回到前三場的水平.

To conclude: Using the simple statistics and plotting the distribution of his sinker speed, we could find that he could possibly still survive in MLB, if his sinker could remain powerful. My hypotheses(1.a and 2) are partially supported by the chart, though we only have limited data. Wang(and Blue Jays coaching team) has to figure out why sometimes his sinker would go off-speed. This is the primary concern. Shaping his second breaking ball could be postponed for a while, since, at least shown by the data here, his sinker could still be functional.單從數據上來看很難確定是否王投球機制出了問題,但是從數據中倒是很有可能看到1-a跟2成立的可能. 不過樣本太小,要說這樣的猜想成立的結論有點過於武斷. 這樣的整理為王的回歸點出了方向: 主要還是得找回自己的Sinker的狀態,並且能夠在場中維持, 至於第二球種可以稍待一下, 然而指叉跟曲球看來還是最佳的選擇.